Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Oilers at 64%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Oilers rate higher (1537 to 1469 Elo) and the Oilers have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Kraken
Now 38%
42%
with a win
35%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
Oilers
Now 96%
96%
with a win
95%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Oilers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 64%
- Fair odds
- EDM -178
- SEA +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SEA 2.8 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | SEA: Starter not announced · EDM: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | EDM +103 Elo | EDM 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.23rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.9% | Shot share | 49.1%18th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%12th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 11th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 6–518th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 147632nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321469 | Elo rating | 15377th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Kraken
6 listedNikke Kokko G
Injured Reserveir-nr
Curtis Douglas C
Injured Reserveir
Jared McCann LW
Injured ReserveMcCann (lower body) will be out for approximately 10 weeks, the team announced Sunday.
Jacob Melanson RW
Injured ReserveMelanson's upper-body injury was diagnosed Saturday as an anterior mediastinum hematoma with vascular pseudo aneurysm. He will continue to be evaluated and is out indefinitely.
Ryan Lindgren D
Injured ReserveLindgren (upper body) was placed on injured reserve by the Kraken on Thursday and is expected to miss four to six weeks.
Jake O'Brien C
Injured ReserveO'Brien (lower body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve Wednesday.
Oilers
5 listedIsaac Howard LW
Injured Reserveir
Alec Regula D
Injured ReserveRegula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Matt Savoie C
Injured ReserveSavoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Frederik Andersen G
Injured ReserveAndersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on Tuesday.
Mattias Janmark C
Injured ReserveJanmark (undisclosed) does not have a timetable for his return from injury.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–7 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–4 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–11 EDM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.