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Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast

ESPN+, Altitude Sports, MINNHL

Away

Avalanche

11-6-2

50%

at

Home

Wild

13-3-4

50%

The pick
MIN · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–3
Fair odds
-101

Your pick

Grand Casino Arena · ESPN+, Altitude Sports, MINNHL

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Wild 50%). It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Wild have home ice and the Avalanche rate higher (1568 to 1552 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Avalanche

Now 94%

95%

with a win

93%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Wild

Now 94%

95%

with a win

93%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Wild 50%

Toss-up
COL 50%MIN 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 53%
Fair odds
MIN -101
COL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
COL 3.1 – 3.1 MIN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCOLMINWhy
Team rating15681552Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies——COL: Starter not announced · MIN: Starter not announced
Elo ratingsMIN +19 EloMIN 52.7%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 50.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 50.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild compared, with each team's league rank
COLStatMIN
1st of 324.1Goals scored3.314th of 32
15th of 323.1Goals allowed2.21st of 32
5th of 32+1.0Margin+1.04th of 32
9th of 3252.6%Shot share53.3%5th of 32
14th of 3289.2%Save percentage91.5%2nd of 32
8th of 326–4Last 107–32nd of 32
17th of 324–5Road vs home5–26th of 32
28th of 321488Opponent Elo149914th of 32
2nd of 321568Elo rating15524th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AvalancheWild
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Avalanche

2 listed

  • Josh Manson D

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Zachary L'Heureux LW

    Injured Reserve

    ir-lt

Wild

2 listed

  • Filip Gustavsson G

    Injured Reserve

    Gustavsson (hip) will travel with the Wild during the team's upcoming three-game road trip, per Joe Smith of The Athletic.

  • Brock Faber D

    Injured Reserve

    Faber (skull) skated with his teammates for the first time Thursday, Joe Smith of The Athletic reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCOLMIN
Puck line11–712–7
Last 106–47–3
Favorite9–78–7
Underdog2–04–0
Overs–unders13–56–13
Overs–unders, last 108–23–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

COL 12–5 MIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.