Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
- The pick
- CBJ · Toss-up
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–3
- Fair odds
- -121
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Blue Jackets at 55%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Blue Jackets have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Red Wings
Now 20%
23%
with a win
18%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Blue Jackets
Now 26%
29%
with a win
23%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 57%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DET 3.1 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | DET: Starter not announced · CBJ: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +50 Elo | CBJ 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.5%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 32 |
| 24th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15212nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321474 | Elo rating | 148918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Red Wings
3 listedAlbert Johansson D
Injured ReserveJohansson (undisclosed) will be with the Red Wings for their upcoming four-game road trip, Ansar Khan of MLive.com reports Friday.
Dylan Larkin C
Injured Reserveir-nr
Simon Edvinsson D
Injured ReserveEdvinsson (contract dispute) is on the Red Wings' injured, non-roster list, per the NHL media site Wednesday.
Blue Jackets
Nothing on the injury report.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–8 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–4 CBJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.