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Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

TNT

Away

Golden Knights

12-5-2

46%

at

Home

Oilers

13-3-3

54%

The pick
EDM · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–3
Fair odds
-117

Your pick

Rogers Place · TNT

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Oilers at 54%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Oilers have home ice.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Golden Knights

Now 95%

96%

with a win

93%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Oilers

Now 96%

97%

with a win

95%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Oilers 54%

Toss-up
VGK 46%EDM 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
EDM 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 55%
Fair odds
EDM -117
VGK +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
VGK 3.1 – 3.3 EDM
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKEDMWhy
Team rating15391537Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies——VGK: Starter not announced · EDM: Starter not announced
Elo ratingsEDM +33 EloEDM 54.7%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 53.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 53.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatEDM
12th of 323.4Goals scored4.11st of 32
5th of 322.7Goals allowed2.99th of 32
6th of 32+0.7Margin+1.23rd of 32
10th of 3252.5%Shot share49.1%18th of 32
7th of 3290.2%Save percentage89.6%12th of 32
14th of 325–5Last 106–48th of 32
6th of 326–4Road vs home6–518th of 32
27th of 321488Opponent Elo147632nd of 32
5th of 321539Elo rating15377th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Golden Knights

2 listed

  • Noah Hanifin D

    Out

    out

  • Parker Wotherspoon D

    Injured Reserve

    ir

Oilers

5 listed

  • Isaac Howard LW

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Alec Regula D

    Injured Reserve

    Regula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.

  • Matt Savoie C

    Injured Reserve

    Savoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.

  • Frederik Andersen G

    Injured Reserve

    Andersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on Tuesday.

  • Mattias Janmark C

    Injured Reserve

    Janmark (undisclosed) does not have a timetable for his return from injury.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKEDM
Puck line8–1113–6
Last 104–67–3
Favorite7–109–5
Underdog1–14–1
Overs–unders11–810–9
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 5–11 EDM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.