Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Stars at 63%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Stars rate higher (1538 to 1488 Elo), the Stars have home ice and the Penguins are on a back-to-back.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Penguins
Now 18%
23%
with a win
16%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Stars
Now 82%
84%
with a win
78%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Stars 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 66%
- Fair odds
- DAL -171
- PIT +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- PIT 2.8 – 3.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | — | PIT: Starter not announced · DAL: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | DAL +116 Elo | DAL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.44th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 12th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 53.2%6th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%5th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 32 |
| 9th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 32 |
| 19th of 321488 | Elo rating | 15386th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Penguins
5 listedVille Koivunen RW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Elmer Soderblom LW
Injured ReserveSoderblom (upper body) is week-to-week, per Penguins PR on Monday.
Bryan Rust RW
Injured ReserveRust (lower body) will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Michelle Crechiolo of the Penguins' official site reports Thursday.
Trevor van Riemsdyk D
Injured Reserveir
Ryan Graves D
Injured ReserveGraves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Stars
5 listedMiro Heiskanen D
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Kyle Capobianco D
Injured Reserveir
Oskar Back C
Injured ReserveBack was placed on long-term injured reserve on Saturday.
Matt Duchene C
Injured ReserveDuchene will be out for approximately three months after undergoing surgery to repair a core injury, the team announced Monday.
Luke Krys D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 4–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–5 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.