Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Wild at 62%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Wild rate higher (1552 to 1390 Elo) and the Canucks have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Wild
Now 94%
95%
with a win
93%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
Canucks
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 68%
- Fair odds
- MIN -162
- VAN +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIN 3.5 – 2.8 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | MIN: Starter not announced · VAN: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | MIN +127 Elo | MIN 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 4.532nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −1.731st of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 41.7%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 85.8%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 5th of 328–5 | Road vs home | 1–832nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15107th of 32 |
| 4th of 321552 | Elo rating | 139032nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Wild
2 listedFilip Gustavsson G
Injured ReserveGustavsson (hip) will travel with the Wild during the team's upcoming three-game road trip, per Joe Smith of The Athletic.
Brock Faber D
Injured ReserveFaber (skull) skated with his teammates for the first time Thursday, Joe Smith of The Athletic reports.
Canucks
4 listedTom Willander D
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Filip Chytil C
Injured ReserveChytil (shoulder) will not be in action versus the Flyers on Monday, Canucks play-by-play announcer Brendan Batchelor reports.
Mackenzie MacEachern LW
Injured Reserveir-nr
Thatcher Demko G
Injured ReserveCo-president of hockey operations Henrik Sedin said Monday that he hopes Demko (hip) will be ready to return before Christmas, Kevin Woodley of NHL.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–7 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders | 6–13 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–3 VAN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.