Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Bruins at 55%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Bruins have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Capitals
Now 63%
67%
with a win
60%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Bruins
Now 75%
78%
with a win
72%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Fair odds
- BOS -120
- WSH +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- WSH 3.0 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | WSH: Starter not announced · BOS: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | BOS +44 Elo | BOS 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.32nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.52nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 32 |
| 11th of 321526 | Elo rating | 15359th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Capitals
3 listedRasmus Sandin D
Injured ReserveSandin (knee) will be with the Capitals for their two-game road trip, Tarik El-Bashir of Monumental Sports Network reports Monday.
Vincent Desharnais D
Injured Reserveir
Patrick Thomas C
Injured Reserveir-nr
Bruins
1 listedJames Hagens C
Injured ReserveHead coach Marco Sturm announced Saturday that Hagens (back) is expected to miss multiple weeks, per Jack Studley of Boston Hockey Now.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 14–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 8–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.