Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
- The pick
- CGY · Lean
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–3
- Fair odds
- -140
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Flames at 58%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Flames rate higher (1456 to 1403 Elo) and the Flames have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Blackhawks
Now <1%
1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Flames
Now 17%
19%
with a win
13%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Flames 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 62%
- Fair odds
- CGY -140
- CHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | CHI: Starter not announced · CGY: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | CGY +88 Elo | CGY 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.2 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.2 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.1 | Margin | −0.928th of 32 |
| 31st of 3242.8% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 88.7%23rd of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–9 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 32 |
| 1st of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 32 |
| 31st of 321403 | Elo rating | 145629th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Blackhawks
2 listedPatrick Kane RW
Injured ReserveKane (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Bowen Byram D
Injured ReserveByram (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.
Flames
4 listedKevin Bahl D
Injured ReserveBahl will undergo surgery for a ruptured Achilles tendon and won't play again in the 2026-27 season, the Flames announced Sunday.
Jonathan Huberdeau LW
Injured ReserveHuberdeau (hip) took the ice in a regular jersey Friday, Pat Steinberg of QR Calgary 770 AM reports.
Connor Zary C
Outout
Samuel Honzek LW
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–5 CGY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.