Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
- The pick
- COL · Solid
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–4
- Fair odds
- -171
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Avalanche at 63%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Avalanche rate higher (1568 to 1484 Elo), the Avalanche have home ice and the Avalanche are on a back-to-back.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Ducks
Now 47%
52%
with a win
45%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Avalanche
Now 94%
95%
with a win
92%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Avalanche 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Fair odds
- COL -171
- ANA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- ANA 2.8 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | — | ANA: Starter not announced · COL: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | COL +89 Elo | COL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.05th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 52.6%9th of 32 |
| 30th of 3286.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 32 |
| 29th of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 32 |
| 21st of 321484 | Elo rating | 15682nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Ducks
4 listedTroy Terry RW
Injured ReserveTerry (hip) will likely make his 2026-27 debut against Nashville on Wednesday, according to Eric Stephens of The Athletic.
A.J. Greer LW
Injured ReserveGreer (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Monday.
Ian Moore D
Injured ReserveHead coach Joel Quenneville said Friday that Moore (lower body) is still "a ways from skating," Patrick Present of The Hockey News reports.
Ryan Poehling C
Injured ReservePoehling (knee) is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain.
Avalanche
2 listedJosh Manson D
Injured Reserveir
Zachary L'Heureux LW
Injured Reserveir-lt
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–7 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–7 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.