Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Wild at 55%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Wild rate higher (1552 to 1456 Elo) and the Flames have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Wild
Now 94%
95%
with a win
93%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
Flames
Now 17%
20%
with a win
15%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIN 3.3 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | MIN: Starter not announced · CGY: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | MIN +61 Elo | MIN 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.928th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 88.7%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 5th of 328–5 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 32 |
| 14th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 32 |
| 4th of 321552 | Elo rating | 145629th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Wild
2 listedFilip Gustavsson G
Injured ReserveGustavsson (hip) will travel with the Wild during the team's upcoming three-game road trip, per Joe Smith of The Athletic.
Brock Faber D
Injured ReserveFaber (skull) skated with his teammates for the first time Thursday, Joe Smith of The Athletic reports.
Flames
4 listedKevin Bahl D
Injured ReserveBahl will undergo surgery for a ruptured Achilles tendon and won't play again in the 2026-27 season, the Flames announced Sunday.
Jonathan Huberdeau LW
Injured ReserveHuberdeau (hip) took the ice in a regular jersey Friday, Pat Steinberg of QR Calgary 770 AM reports.
Connor Zary C
Outout
Samuel Honzek LW
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–7 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 6–13 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–6 CGY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.