Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Red Wings at 58%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Bruins rate higher (1535 to 1474 Elo), the Red Wings have home ice and the Bruins are on a back-to-back.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Bruins
Now 75%
80%
with a win
72%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Red Wings
Now 20%
23%
with a win
17%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Red Wings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Fair odds
- DET -138
- BOS +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BOS 3.0 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | — | BOS: Starter not announced · DET: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.5 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.6% | Shot share | 52.9%8th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 88.7%21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 9th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 4–627th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149224th of 32 |
| 9th of 321535 | Elo rating | 147424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Bruins
1 listedJames Hagens C
Injured ReserveHead coach Marco Sturm announced Saturday that Hagens (back) is expected to miss multiple weeks, per Jack Studley of Boston Hockey Now.
Red Wings
3 listedAlbert Johansson D
Injured ReserveJohansson (undisclosed) will be with the Red Wings for their upcoming four-game road trip, Ansar Khan of MLive.com reports Friday.
Dylan Larkin C
Injured Reserveir-nr
Simon Edvinsson D
Injured ReserveEdvinsson (contract dispute) is on the Red Wings' injured, non-roster list, per the NHL media site Wednesday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–4 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–1 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–4 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.