Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the 49ers at 68%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Seahawks are expected to start Drew Lock instead of Sam Darnold, the 49ers have home field and the Seahawks rate higher (1649 to 1634 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Seahawks
Now 58%
74%
with a win
51%
with a loss
This game is worth 23 points of playoff chance to them.
49ers
Now 97%
98%
with a win
93%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
49ers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -5.5
- SF 69%
- Fair odds
- SF -214
- SEA +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SEA 20.2 – 25.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1649 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −97 | +24 | SEA: Drew Lock (65%) or Jalen Milroe (35%), Sam Darnold out · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | SF +142 Elo | SF 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 68.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 29.43rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.0 | Points allowed | 19.56th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+4.4 | Margin | +9.92nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.22 | Yards per play | 6.311st of 32 |
| 1st of 324.14 | Yards allowed per play | 4.783rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
| 11th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 148322nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321649 | Elo rating | 16346th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+1.6 | Offense, adjusted | +2.37th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+2.7 | Defense, adjusted | +0.215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Seahawks
25 listedEmanuel Wilson RB
ActiveWilson didn't log any snaps during Sunday's win over the Cardinals.
Cooper Kupp WR
ActiveKupp caught three of four targets for 32 yards during the Seahawks' 17-3 win over the Cardinals on Sunday.
Leonard Williams DT
Questionablequestionable
Brandon Pili DT
Questionablequestionable
Rashid Shaheed WR
Questionablequestionable
Quenton Nelson G
Doubtfuldoubtful
Uchenna Nwosu LB
Questionablequestionable
Charles Cross OT
Doubtfuldoubtful
Sam Darnold QB
Outout
George Holani RB
ActiveHolani didn't log any touches or targets Sunday in a 17-3 win over Arizona.
Tory Horton WR
ActiveHorton caught two passes for 22 yards on three targets in Sunday's 17-3 win over the Cardinals.
Jason Myers PK
ActiveMyers made his only field-goal attempt and converted both of his extra-point tries during Sunday's 17-3 win versus the Cardinals.
49ers
25 listedGracen Halton DT
Injured Reserveir
Brandin Cooks WR
ActiveCooks brought in both of his targets for 25 yards during Sunday's 38-17 win over the Raiders.
Demarcus Robinson WR
ActiveRobinson caught three passes for 22 yards on four targets in Sunday's 38-17 win over the Raiders.
Mac Jones QB
ActiveThe 49ers fielded trade inquiries in Jones from the Vikings leading up to Tuesday's deadline, but the quarterback is expected to remain in San Francisco, Dianna Russini of BetUS TV reports.
Mike Evans WR
Questionablequestionable
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR
Questionablequestionable
Jordan James RB
ActiveJames rushed three times for 11 yards and returned two kickoffs for 31 yards Sunday in a 38-17 victory versus Las Vegas.
Eddy Pineiro PK
ActivePineiro made his lone field-goal attempt and all five of his extra-point tries during San Francisco's win over the Raiders on Sunday.
C.J. West DT
Injured ReserveThe 49ers plan to open West's (undisclosed) practice window Wednesday, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.
Deommodore Lenoir CB
QuestionableCoach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Lenoir (foot) is considered day-to-day ahead of Sunday's game at Dallas, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.
Renardo Green CB
QuestionableCoach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Green (back) is considered day-to-day ahead of Sunday's game at Dallas, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.
Brandon Aiyuk WR
OutThe 49ers reinstated Aiyuk (personal) from the reserve/left squad list Monday and were granted a two-week roster exemption for the wide receiver, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4–2 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | — | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–5 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.