Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Broncos favored by 8.5, and the forecast follows it (Broncos 80%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Broncos more, at 92%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Broncos rate higher (1656 to 1374 Elo), the Raiders are expected to start Fernando Mendoza instead of Kirk Cousins and the Broncos have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Raiders
Now 3%
9%
with a win
3%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Broncos
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
97%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Broncos 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML LV +340 / DEN -440
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -17.5
- DEN 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 92.3%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -393
- LV +393 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- LV 16.5 – 25.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1656 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −107 | +7 | LV: Fernando Mendoza, usually Kirk Cousins · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +432 Elo | DEN 92.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 87.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 91.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 79.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.4 | Points scored | 22.020th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3229.8 | Points allowed | 20.710th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−3.3 | Margin | +1.315th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.35 | Yards per play | 4.7927th of 32 |
| 31st of 326.09 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1711th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15306th of 32 |
| 27th of 321374 | Elo rating | 16563rd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−1.4 | Offense, adjusted | +0.415th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−2.7 | Defense, adjusted | +1.85th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Raiders
25 listedJack Bech WR
ActiveBech caught one of two targets for nine yards Sunday in a loss to the 49ers.
Fernando Mendoza QB
ActiveMendoza will take over as the Raiders' new starting quarterback beginning with Sunday's game versus the Seahawks after Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota on Tuesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Thomas Booker IV DT
Questionablequestionable
Matt Gay PK
ActiveGay converted his only field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during Las Vegas' loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Aidan O'Connell QB
ActiveBryce Cabeldue G
ActiveMalik Benson WR
ActiveDalton Johnson S
ActiveDont'e Thornton Jr. WR
ActiveJalen Nailor WR
ActiveNailor caught two of four targets for nine yards during Sunday's 38-17 loss to the 49ers.
Michael Mayer TE
ActiveMayer caught all three of his targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 38-17 loss to the 49ers.
Mike Washington Jr. RB
ActiveWashington turned six carries into minus-three yards in Sunday's 38-17 loss to the 49ers.
Broncos
25 listedAdam Trautman TE
ActiveTrautman caught two of three passes for 15 yards during the Broncos' 26-21 win over the Panthers on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr. WR
ActiveMims caught one of two targets for zero yards, added a five-yard carry and returned three punts for 22 yards during the Broncos' 26-21 win over the Panthers on Sunday.
Troy Franklin WR
ActiveFranklin brought in three of four targets for 31 yards during the Broncos' 26-21 win over the Panthers on Sunday.
Daiyan Henley LB
ActiveThe Broncos acquired Henley from the Chargers on Tuesday in exchange for a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Evan Engram TE
ActiveEngram caught four of five targets for 33 yards in Sunday's 26-21 win over the Panthers.
Wil Lutz PK
ActiveLutz went 2-for-2 on both his field-goal attempts and extra-point tries during Denver's win over Carolina on Sunday.
Brandon Jones S
Outout
Talanoa Hufanga S
Outout
Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR
ActiveDallen Bentley TE
ActiveSam Ehlinger QB
ActiveKris Abrams-Draine CB
Outout
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 5–0 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 2–4 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.