Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
The short version
- The betting line has the Texans favored by 10, and the forecast follows it (Texans 78%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 76%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Texans rate higher (1524 to 1362 Elo) and the Texans have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Colts
Now <1%
1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
Texans
Now 28%
33%
with a win
14%
with a loss
This game is worth 18 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Texans 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -10
- ML IND +350 / HOU -455
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -8
- HOU 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 75.8%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -364
- IND +364 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- IND 17.3 – 27.3 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +10 | IND: Daniel Jones · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +198 Elo | HOU 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 76.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 78.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3220.4 | Points scored | 26.19th of 32 |
| 30th of 3227.7 | Points allowed | 24.018th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.2 | Margin | +2.114th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.50 | Yards per play | 5.758th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.11 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2715th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 32 |
| 13th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 148023rd of 32 |
| 29th of 321362 | Elo rating | 152415th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.6 | Offense, adjusted | +1.110th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−2.3 | Defense, adjusted | +1.36th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Colts
25 listedLaquon Treadwell WR
ActiveTreadwell logged 52 of the Colts' 64 snaps and was held without a reception on one target in Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Cowboys.
Deion Burks WR
ActiveBurks played 17 of the Colts' 64 offensive snaps in Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Cowboys, finishing with a zero-yard reception on his lone target.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR
ActiveThe Colts signed Westbrook-Ikhine off their practice squad Tuesday.
Jonathan Taylor RB
ActiveThe Colts informed Taylor that he won't be traded before Tuesday's deadline, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.
Jalen Travis OT
Doubtfuldoubtful
Justin Walley CB
Questionablequestionable
Akeem Davis-Gaither LB
Questionablequestionable
A.J. Haulcy S
Questionablequestionable
DJ Giddens RB
ActiveGiddens was active but didn't play in Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Cowboys.
Riley Leonard QB
ActiveCharlie Heck OT
ActivePharaoh Brown TE
Active
Texans
25 listedFoster Moreau TE
ActiveMoreau didn't log any targets or touches Sunday in a 44-22 win against the Chargers.
Dare Ogunbowale RB
ActiveOgunbowale caught his only target for a three-yard gain Sunday in a 44-22 win over the Chargers.
David Montgomery RB
Questionablequestionable
Reed Blankenship S
Questionablequestionable
Cade Stover TE
ActiveNate Thomas OT
ActiveBraden Smith OT
ActiveFebechi Nwaiwu G
ActiveKa'imi Fairbairn PK
ActiveFairbairn went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and made all five of his PATs during Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers.
Woody Marks RB
ActiveMarks turned 18 carries into 70 yards and hauled in one of four targets for four yards during Sunday's 44-22 road win over the Chargers.
Dalton Schultz TE
ActiveSchultz caught two of four targets for 42 yards in Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers.
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR
ActiveHarrison caught two of three targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 44-22 win over the Chargers.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–5 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.