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LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast

ClipperVision

Away

Clippers

2-8

24%

at

Home

Warriors

8-3

76%

The pick
GS · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
110–119
Fair odds
-310

Your pick

Chase Center · ClipperVision

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Warriors at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Warriors, the Warriors rate higher (1550 to 1491 Elo) and the Warriors have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Clippers

Now 14%

17%

with a win

13%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Warriors

Now 84%

85%

with a win

81%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Warriors 76%

Strong
LAC 24%GS 76%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
GS 76%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
GS -7
GS 76%
Fair odds
GS -310
LAC +310 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
LAC 110.2 – 118.8 GS
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLACGSWhy
Team rating14911550Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−70+37LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −16, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −44, Kristaps Porzingis −31, Brandon Williams −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsGS +202 EloGS 76.1%
Market-implied ratingsGS 75.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastGS 75.6%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors compared, with each team's league rank
LACStatGS
19th of 30112.2Points scored120.42nd of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed111.212th of 30
23rd of 30−5.9Margin+9.24th of 30
20th of 30109.1Offense rating118.32nd of 30
25th of 30114.8Defense rating109.311th of 30
12th of 30101.7Pace100.821st of 30
27th of 300–5Road vs home6–13rd of 30
4th of 301534Opponent Elo151811th of 30
16th of 301491Elo rating15509th of 30
19th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted+2.15th of 30
19th of 30−1.1Defense, adjusted+0.613th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Clippers

−70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Garland2922.1Available
Rui Hachimura2715.9Available
Derrick Jones Jr.2616.9Available
Kris Dunn2515.3Available
Kobe Sanders2315.2Available
Brook Lopez2217.5Available
Max Strus2116.3Available
Keaton Wagler1917.6Available
Isaiah Jackson1818.9Available
Gradey Dick1414.7Available
Baba Miller918.7Available
Cam Christie115.1Day-To-Day

Warriors

+37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Brandin Podziemski3220.0Available
Yaxel Lendeborg3020.8Available
Stephen Curry2929.4Available
Draymond Green2714.9Available
De'Anthony Melton2319.3Available
Georges Niang2216.4Available
Gui Santos1918.4Available
Al Horford1819.0Available
Charles Bassey1618.9Available
Graham Ike918.4Available
LJ Cryer817.0Available
Malevy Leons614.6Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ClippersWarriors
140014501500155016001650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Clippers

5 listed

  • Cam Christie G

    Day-To-Day

    Christie (ankle) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix.

  • Yanic Konan Niederhauser C

    Out

    Niederhauser (foot) is out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Brandon Ingram F

    Out

    Ingram (Achilles) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game at Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Bradley Beal G

    Out

    Beal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.

  • Jordan Miller G

    Out

    Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.

Warriors

6 listed

  • Gary Payton II G

    Out

    Payton (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Will Richard G

    Out

    Richard (thumb) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Houston.

  • Brandon Williams G

    Out

    Williams (hamstring) will miss at least one week, per Anthony Slater of ESPN.com.

  • Kristaps Porzingis C

    Out

    Porzingis announced on his social media that he's stepping away from basketball.

  • Moses Moody G

    Out

    Moody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

  • Jimmy Butler III F

    Out

    Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLACGS
Against the spread4–46–2
Last 104–46–2
Favorite1–02–1
Underdog3–44–1
Overs–unders5–34–4
Overs–unders, last 105–34–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAC 10–3 GS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.