Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Nuggets at 55%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Nuggets, the Raptors have home court and the Nuggets traveled east across time zones.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Nuggets
Now 80%
82%
with a win
78%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Raptors
Now 77%
79%
with a win
75%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Nuggets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 56%
- Fair odds
- DEN -121
- TOR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DEN 114.9 – 113.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −60 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −65, Scottie Barnes −33, Immanuel Quickley (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +40 Elo | DEN 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 116.69th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 113.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +3.313th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 113.312th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 110.112th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 102.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 147523rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301542 | Elo rating | 152114th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.9 | Offense, adjusted | +0.613th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Defense, adjusted | +0.811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Nuggets
+19 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 33 | 26.6 | Available |
| Nikola Jokic | 33 | 36.5 | Available |
| Christian Braun | 29 | 19.1 | Available |
| Cameron Johnson | 27 | 18.9 | Available |
| Aaron Gordon | 26 | 22.3 | Available |
| DeMar DeRozan | 20 | 19.3 | Available |
| Spencer Jones | 19 | 12.9 | Available |
| Trevon Brazile | 16 | 18.0 | Available |
| Marvin Bagley III | 12 | 19.3 | Available |
| Tyus Jones | 8 | 14.4 | Available |
| Bryce Hopkins | 6 | 16.9 | Available |
| Ryan Nembhard | 4 | 16.2 | Available |
Raptors
−60 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 35 | 21.3 | Available |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 31 | 14.8 | Available |
| Jamal Shead | 28 | 15.1 | Available |
| Jakob Poeltl | 24 | 21.0 | Available |
| Malachi Smith | 24 | 15.6 | Available |
| Jamison Battle | 21 | 15.1 | Available |
| Immanuel Quickley | 19 | 21.4 | Day-To-Day−9 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 15 | 20.2 | Day-To-Day−4 |
| Alijah Martin | 15 | 18.0 | Available |
| Allen Graves | 13 | 18.5 | Available |
| Kyle Anderson | 7 | 16.2 | Available |
| Jaden Bradley | 5 | 18.6 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Nuggets
1 listedJulian Strawther G
OutStrawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.
Raptors
6 listedTrayce Jackson-Davis F
Day-To-DayJackson-Davis is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston with an illness.
Collin Murray-Boyles F
Day-To-DayMurray-Boyles (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Celtics.
Immanuel Quickley G
Day-To-DayQuickley (hamstring) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston.
Scottie Barnes F
OutBarnes (groin) is out for Wednesday's game against Boston.
Kawhi Leonard F
OutLeonard (knee) is continuing the reconditioning process, and another update will be provided in one week, Blake Murphy of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Nate Bittle C
OutBittle (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against Memphis.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 7–0 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.