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Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast

Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, DAZN MEM

Away

Lakers

10-2

66%

at

Home

Grizzlies

7-3

34%

The pick
LAL · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
118–113
Fair odds
-194

Your pick

FedExForum · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, DAZN MEM

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Lakers at 66%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Lakers rate higher (1625 to 1443 Elo), lineup changes favor the Grizzlies and the Grizzlies have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Lakers

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

99%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Grizzlies

Now 7%

9%

with a win

7%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Lakers 66%

Solid
LAL 66%MEM 34%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
LAL 66%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAL -4
LAL 65%
Fair odds
LAL -194
MEM +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
LAL 118.3 – 113.3 MEM
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLALMEMWhy
Team rating16251443Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+27+65LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −3, Richie Saunders −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsLAL +108 EloLAL 65.1%
Market-implied ratingsLAL 66.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAL 66.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies compared, with each team's league rank
LALStatMEM
1st of 30122.1Points scored117.97th of 30
17th of 30114.4Points allowed110.811th of 30
8th of 30+7.7Margin+7.19th of 30
1st of 30119.6Offense rating114.97th of 30
17th of 30112.1Defense rating108.09th of 30
7th of 30102.2Pace101.415th of 30
3rd of 305–1Road vs home2–321st of 30
20th of 301492Opponent Elo143730th of 30
6th of 301625Elo rating144322nd of 30
1st of 30+3.1Offense, adjusted+0.615th of 30
12th of 30+0.7Defense, adjusted−2.022nd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Lakers

+27 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Luka Doncic3434.0Available
Austin Reaves3323.0Available
Walker Kessler2819.7Available
Jake LaRavia2414.9Available
Matisse Thybulle2215.0Available
Sandro Mamukelashvili2221.8Available
Ziaire Williams2113.5Available
Collin Sexton1919.7Available
Quentin Grimes1415.7Day-To-Day
Jarred Vanderbilt615.1Available
Adou Thiero416.0Available

Grizzlies

+65 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cameron Boozer3018.6Available
Ty Jerome2926.7Available
Cedric Coward2620.2Available
Jaylen Wells2515.5Available
Jerami Grant2216.5Available
Zach Edey2122.1Available
Javon Small2117.5Available
Cam Spencer1920.1Available
GG Jackson1216.6Available
Isaiah Stewart917.6Day-To-Day
Kris Murray913.0Available
Taylor Hendricks713.2Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

LakersGrizzlies
13001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Lakers

1 listed

  • Quentin Grimes G

    Day-To-Day

    Grimes (finger) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game in Milwaukee.

Grizzlies

4 listed

  • Isaiah Stewart C

    Day-To-Day

    Stewart (knee) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Nuggets.

  • Scotty Pippen Jr. G

    Out

    Pippen (back) remains out for Wednesday's game against Denver, Michael Wallace of the Grizzlies' official site reports.

  • Quinten Post C

    Out

    Post (concussion) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Nuggets.

  • Richie Saunders G

    Out

    Saunders signed a two-way contract with the Grizzlies on Saturday, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLALMEM
Against the spread6–35–3
Last 106–35–3
Favorite5–33–2
Underdog1–02–1
Overs–unders5–42–6
Overs–unders, last 105–42–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAL 9–2 MEM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.