Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Lakers at 92%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Lakers rate higher (1625 to 1309 Elo), lineup changes favor the Lakers and the Jazz are on a back-to-back.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Jazz
Now 0%
0%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Lakers
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Lakers 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -16
- LAL 93%
- Fair odds
- LAL -1147
- UTAH +1147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- UTAH 106.1 – 124.7 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1309 | 1625 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | +27 | UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −39, Jaren Jackson Jr. −27, Keyonte George −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +451 Elo | LAL 93.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 91.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 92.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 122.11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 114.417th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.2 | Margin | +7.78th of 30 |
| 29th of 30102.5 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 112.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.0 | Pace | 102.27th of 30 |
| 26th of 281–9 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 28 |
| 27th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 30 |
| 6th of 301526 | Opponent Elo | 149220th of 30 |
| 30th of 301309 | Elo rating | 16256th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.2 | Offense, adjusted | +3.11st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−4.0 | Defense, adjusted | +0.712th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Jazz
−31 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Bailey | 34 | 13.1 | Available |
| Darryn Peterson | 32 | 16.5 | Available |
| Jaxson Hayes | 25 | 18.3 | Available |
| Josh Green | 24 | 12.4 | Available |
| Josh Okogie | 22 | 13.6 | Available |
| Isaiah Collier | 19 | 13.7 | Available |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 17 | 13.9 | Available |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 17 | 15.1 | Available |
| Mo Bamba | 15 | 15.9 | Available |
| Kyle Filipowski | 12 | 16.7 | Available |
| Tony Bradley | 9 | 16.2 | Available |
| Harrison Ingram | 6 | 18.3 | Available |
Lakers
+27 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 34 | 34.0 | Available |
| Austin Reaves | 33 | 23.0 | Available |
| Walker Kessler | 28 | 19.7 | Available |
| Jake LaRavia | 24 | 14.9 | Available |
| Matisse Thybulle | 22 | 15.0 | Available |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 22 | 21.8 | Available |
| Ziaire Williams | 21 | 13.5 | Available |
| Collin Sexton | 19 | 19.7 | Available |
| Quentin Grimes | 14 | 15.7 | Day-To-Day |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 6 | 15.1 | Available |
| Adou Thiero | 4 | 16.0 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Jazz
4 listedLauri Markkanen F
OutMarkkanen is out for Tuesday's game versus the Heat with a right wrist sprain.
Keyonte George G
OutGeorge (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Heat.
Jusuf Nurkic C
OutNurkic (toe) has begun participating in on-court activities as he continues recovering from a right foot injury sustained during an Oct. 4 preseason game against Denver. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the Jazz announced Friday.
Jaren Jackson Jr. F
OutJackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Lakers
1 listedQuentin Grimes G
Day-To-DayGrimes (finger) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game in Milwaukee.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–8 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 2–7 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–9 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–10 LAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.
- Oct 25LAL 132 @ UTAH 123Picked LAL 69%Hit
- Apr 12UTAH 107 @ LAL 131Picked LAL 88%Hit
- Dec 18LAL 143 @ UTAH 135Picked LAL 77%Hit
- Nov 23LAL 108 @ UTAH 106Picked LAL 77%Hit
- Nov 18UTAH 126 @ LAL 140Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Feb 12LAL 119 @ UTAH 131Picked LAL 77%Miss
- Feb 10UTAH 113 @ LAL 132Picked LAL 84%Hit
- Dec 1LAL 105 @ UTAH 104Picked LAL 64%Hit