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Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast

DAZN CLE

Away

Cavaliers

5-6

76%

at

Home

Bulls

1-8

24%

The pick
CLE · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
123–114
Fair odds
-321

Your pick

United Center · DAZN CLE

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Cavaliers at 76%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Cavaliers rate higher (1548 to 1371 Elo), the Bulls are on a back-to-back and the Bulls have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Cavaliers

Now 93%

93%

with a win

90%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Bulls

Now <1%

1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Cavaliers 76%

Strong
CLE 76%CHI 24%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CLE 76%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -7
CLE 76%
Fair odds
CLE -321
CHI +321 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
CLE 123.3 – 114.4 CHI
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLECHIWhy
Team rating15481371Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest—−40CHI on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−17−37CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsCLE +200 EloCLE 76.0%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 76.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 76.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatCHI
10th of 30116.5Points scored112.718th of 30
19th of 30115.0Points allowed129.330th of 30
15th of 30+1.5Margin−16.730th of 30
13th of 30113.3Offense rating105.426th of 30
15th of 30111.8Defense rating121.030th of 30
10th of 30102.0Pace107.01st of 30
22nd of 301–4Road vs home0–327th of 30
13th of 301515Opponent Elo15383rd of 30
10th of 301548Elo rating137125th of 30
6th of 30+2.1Offense, adjusted+0.911th of 30
16th of 30−0.5Defense, adjusted−7.530th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Cavaliers

−17 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Donovan Mitchell3128.1Available
James Harden3123.2Available
Evan Mobley3024.4Available
Peyton Watson2516.5Available
Meleek Thomas2217.9Available
Jarrett Allen2226.0Available
Mario Hezonja2017.4Available
Tyrese Proctor1917.5Available
Thomas Bryant1118.9Available
Craig Porter Jr.1117.2Available
Riley Minix718.9Available
Ernest Udeh Jr.517.9Available

Bulls

−37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Josh Giddey2820.9Available
Caleb Wilson2716.3Available
Matas Buzelis2515.9Available
Jalen Smith2120.7Available
Nic Claxton2015.1Available
Isaac Okoro1912.3Available
Tre Jones1720.2Available
Norman Powell1521.2Day-To-Day−9
Patrick Williams1410.7Available
Noa Essengue1214.8Available
Leonard Miller1217.1Available
Jordan Hawkins911.8Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CavaliersBulls
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Cavaliers

2 listed

  • Sam Merrill G

    Out

    Merrill (elbow) is listed as out for Wednesday's game against the Knicks.

  • Jaylon Tyson G

    Out

    Tyson (ankle) is questionable to face the Knicks on Wednesday.

Bulls

3 listed

  • Norman Powell G

    Day-To-Day

    Powell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.

  • Tobe Awaka F

    Day-To-Day

    Awaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

  • Zach Collins F

    Day-To-Day

    Collins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLECHI
Against the spread2–74–5
Last 102–74–5
Favorite1–50–1
Underdog1–24–4
Overs–unders5–46–3
Overs–unders, last 105–46–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 9–3 CHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.