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Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

NBCSN, DAZN MIN

Away

Nets

2-8

19%

at

Home

Timberwolves

8-3

81%

The pick
MIN · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
106–116
Fair odds
-414

Your pick

Target Center · NBCSN, DAZN MIN

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Timberwolves at 81%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Timberwolves rate higher (1638 to 1335 Elo), lineup changes favor the Nets and the Timberwolves have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Nets

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Timberwolves

Now 97%

97%

with a win

96%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Timberwolves 81%

Strong
BKN 19%MIN 81%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 81%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -9.5
MIN 82%
Fair odds
MIN -414
BKN +414 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
BKN 105.6 – 116.4 MIN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBKNMINWhy
Team rating13351638Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+38−33BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsMIN +268 EloMIN 82.4%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 80.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 80.6%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Brooklyn Nets and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
BKNStatMIN
27th of 30106.7Points scored118.16th of 30
21st of 30115.7Points allowed107.06th of 30
25th of 30−9.0Margin+11.13rd of 30
28th of 30104.1Offense rating114.88th of 30
19th of 30112.9Defense rating104.01st of 30
14th of 30101.5Pace101.713th of 30
25th of 301–5Road vs home4–16th of 30
10th of 301519Opponent Elo149221st of 30
28th of 301335Elo rating16385th of 30
29th of 30−4.7Offense, adjusted+1.59th of 30
20th of 30−1.4Defense, adjusted+3.07th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Nets

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Michael Porter Jr.3120.2Available
Julius Randle3121.3Available
Day'Ron Sharpe2320.6Available
Mikel Brown Jr.2016.5Available
Danny Wolf1914.1Available
Noah Clowney1611.0Available
Moritz Wagner1619.9Available
Chaney Johnson1614.1Available
Keon Ellis1513.5Available
Nolan Traore1312.5Day-To-Day
Ben Saraf1311.5Available
Terance Mann1312.4Available

Timberwolves

−33 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jaden McDaniels3417.8Available
Ayo Dosunmu3218.5Available
Jonathan Kuminga2919.8Available
LaMelo Ball2925.7Available
Rudy Gobert2820.4Available
Trey Lyles2116.5Available
Terrence Shannon Jr.2016.0Available
Jaylen Clark1715.9Available
Joan Beringer1420.5Available
Bones Hyland1118.7Available
Anthony Edwards—26.1Out−40
Donte DiVincenzo—18.3Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

NetsTimberwolves
12501350145015501650league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Nets

3 listed

  • Nolan Traore G

    Day-To-Day

    Traore (calf) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against New Orleans.

  • Egor Demin G

    Out

    Demin (leg) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Grant Nelson F

    Day-To-Day

    Nelson signed a two-way contract with the Nets on Friday, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.

Timberwolves

2 listed

  • Anthony Edwards G

    Out

    Edwards underwent a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday, the Timberwolves announced.

  • Donte DiVincenzo G

    Out

    DiVincenzo (Achilles) remains confident that he'll return during the 2026-27 season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBKNMIN
Against the spread4–39–1
Last 104–39–1
Favorite0–14–1
Underdog4–25–0
Overs–unders3–45–5
Overs–unders, last 103–45–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BKN 1–5 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.