Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast

MyMi, Bucks App

Away

Bucks

1-10

23%

at

Home

Raptors

5-5

77%

The pick
TOR · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
109–118
Fair odds
-329

Your pick

Scotiabank Arena · MyMi, Bucks App

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Raptors at 77%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Raptors rate higher (1521 to 1360 Elo), the Raptors have home court and lineup changes favor the Bucks.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Bucks

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Raptors

Now 77%

78%

with a win

74%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Raptors 77%

Strong
MIL 23%TOR 77%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
TOR 77%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR -6
TOR 73%
Fair odds
TOR -329
MIL +329 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
MIL 108.7 – 117.7 TOR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILTORWhy
Team rating13601521Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−38−60MIL: Missing Tyler Herro −32 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Kawhi Leonard −65, Scottie Barnes −33, Immanuel Quickley (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsTOR +174 EloTOR 73.2%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 77.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 76.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatTOR
29th of 30106.3Points scored116.69th of 30
28th of 30121.2Points allowed113.315th of 30
29th of 30−14.9Margin+3.313th of 30
27th of 30105.0Offense rating113.312th of 30
29th of 30119.7Defense rating110.112th of 30
17th of 30101.1Pace102.84th of 30
27th of 300–5Road vs home2–214th of 30
5th of 301532Opponent Elo147523rd of 30
26th of 301360Elo rating152114th of 30
28th of 30−3.8Offense, adjusted+0.613th of 30
25th of 30−3.7Defense, adjusted+0.811th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Bucks

−38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Kyle Kuzma2813.9Available
Myles Turner2816.7Available
Jaime Jaquez Jr.2718.9Available
Brayden Burries2616.1Available
Ryan Rollins2318.0Available
AJ Green1912.2Available
Nate Ament1916.0Available
Kasparas Jakucionis1815.5Available
Kel'el Ware1720.0Available
Ousmane Dieng1312.5Available
Jericho Sims1012.9Available
Gary Trent Jr.512.5Available

Raptors

−60 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
RJ Barrett3521.3Available
Ja'Kobe Walter3114.8Available
Jamal Shead2815.1Available
Jakob Poeltl2421.0Available
Malachi Smith2415.6Available
Jamison Battle2115.1Available
Immanuel Quickley1921.4Day-To-Day−9
Collin Murray-Boyles1520.2Day-To-Day−4
Alijah Martin1518.0Available
Allen Graves1318.5Available
Kyle Anderson716.2Available
Jaden Bradley518.6Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BucksRaptors
135014001450150015501600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Bucks

1 listed

  • Tyler Herro G

    Out

    Herro (knee) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against New York.

Raptors

6 listed

  • Trayce Jackson-Davis F

    Day-To-Day

    Jackson-Davis is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston with an illness.

  • Collin Murray-Boyles F

    Day-To-Day

    Murray-Boyles (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Celtics.

  • Immanuel Quickley G

    Day-To-Day

    Quickley (hamstring) is questionable for Wednesday's game against Boston.

  • Scottie Barnes F

    Out

    Barnes (groin) is out for Wednesday's game against Boston.

  • Kawhi Leonard F

    Out

    Leonard (knee) is continuing the reconditioning process, and another update will be provided in one week, Blake Murphy of Sportsnet.ca reports.

  • Nate Bittle C

    Out

    Bittle (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against Memphis.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILTOR
Against the spread3–85–3
Last 103–75–3
Favorite0–15–2
Underdog3–70–1
Overs–unders5–64–4
Overs–unders, last 104–64–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 5–6 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.