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Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

KSBI, Thunder App, DAZN IND

Away

Thunder

8-3

73%

at

Home

Pacers

3-8

27%

The pick
OKC · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
116–108
Fair odds
-276

Your pick

Gainbridge Fieldhouse · KSBI, Thunder App, DAZN IND

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Thunder at 73%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Thunder rate higher (1657 to 1380 Elo), lineup changes favor the Pacers and the Pacers have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Thunder

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Pacers

Now <1%

1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Thunder 73%

Strong
OKC 73%IND 27%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
OKC 73%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OKC -5
OKC 69%
Fair odds
OKC -276
IND +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
OKC 115.7 – 108.0 IND
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorOKCINDWhy
Team rating16571380Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40−40IND and OKC on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−80+19OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −39, Jalen Williams −31, Jaylin Williams −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −50, T.J. McConnell (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsOKC +142 EloOKC 69.4%
Market-implied ratingsOKC 73.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastOKC 73.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
OKCStatIND
20th of 30111.4Points scored111.420th of 30
4th of 30105.9Points allowed115.220th of 30
11th of 30+5.5Margin−3.818th of 30
18th of 30110.5Offense rating108.821st of 30
5th of 30105.1Defense rating112.518th of 30
22nd of 30100.6Pace102.18th of 30
5th of 287–3Last 102–823rd of 28
12th of 303–3Road vs home0–427th of 30
14th of 301514Opponent Elo144229th of 30
3rd of 301657Elo rating138024th of 30
14th of 30+0.6Offense, adjusted−1.223rd of 30
4th of 30+4.7Defense, adjusted−2.323rd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Thunder

−80 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander3136.4Available
Ajay Mitchell2824.4Available
Jared McCain2717.9Available
Isaiah Hartenstein2423.7Available
Aday Mara2318.6Available
Bennett Stirtz2117.9Available
Kenrich Williams2117.8Available
Micah Peavy2012.8Available
Alex Caruso1822.1Available
Josh Dix1316.4Available
Nique Clifford1011.9Available
Brooks Barnhizer513.5Available

Pacers

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Andrew Nembhard3017.2Available
Pascal Siakam3023.3Available
Aaron Nesmith2615.6Available
Quenton Jackson2118.2Available
Jarace Walker1913.2Available
Ivica Zubac1822.8Available
Kelly Oubre Jr.1714.3Available
Obi Toppin1720.1Available
Kobe Brown1413.2Available
Larry Nance Jr.1415.6Available
Braden Smith1317.0Available
Jay Huff917.0Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ThunderPacers
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Thunder

5 listed

  • Jaylin Williams F

    Out

    Williams (back) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Trail Blazers.

  • Thomas Sorber C

    Out

    Sorber (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers.

  • Cason Wallace G

    Out

    Wallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.

  • Chet Holmgren C

    Out

    Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.

  • Jalen Williams G

    Out

    Williams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.

Pacers

4 listed

  • T.J. McConnell G

    Day-To-Day

    McConnell is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Wizards due to a strained right hamstring.

  • Tyrese Haliburton G

    Out

    Haliburton (hamstring) is progressing well but does not have a timetable to return, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.

  • Johnny Furphy G

    Out

    Furphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.

  • Ben Sheppard G

    Out

    Head coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonOKCIND
Against the spread6–33–4
Last 106–33–4
Favorite4–20–3
Underdog2–13–1
Overs–unders2–72–5
Overs–unders, last 102–72–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

OKC 7–6 IND in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.