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Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

DAZN IND

Away

Pacers

3-8

20%

at

Home

Knicks

6-4

80%

The pick
NY · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
105–115
Fair odds
-392

Your pick

Madison Square Garden · DAZN IND

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Knicks at 80%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Knicks rate higher (1658 to 1380 Elo), the Knicks are on a back-to-back and the Knicks have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pacers

Now <1%

1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Knicks

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Knicks 80%

Strong
IND 20%NY 80%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
NY 80%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -9
NY 81%
Fair odds
NY -392
IND +392 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
IND 105.0 – 115.4 NY
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDNYWhy
Team rating13801658Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest—−40NY on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+19−8IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −50, T.J. McConnell (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Missing Josh Hart −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsNY +247 EloNY 80.6%
Market-implied ratingsNY 79.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 79.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatNY
20th of 30111.4Points scored110.622nd of 30
20th of 30115.2Points allowed102.31st of 30
18th of 30−3.8Margin+8.36th of 30
21st of 30108.8Offense rating113.410th of 30
18th of 30112.5Defense rating104.93rd of 30
8th of 30102.1Pace97.828th of 30
12th of 303–3Road vs home4–28th of 30
29th of 301442Opponent Elo147524th of 30
24th of 301380Elo rating16582nd of 30
23rd of 30−1.2Offense, adjusted−0.421st of 30
23rd of 30−2.3Defense, adjusted+6.91st of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Andrew Nembhard3017.2Available
Pascal Siakam3023.3Available
Aaron Nesmith2615.6Available
Quenton Jackson2118.2Available
Jarace Walker1913.2Available
Ivica Zubac1822.8Available
Kelly Oubre Jr.1714.3Available
Obi Toppin1720.1Available
Kobe Brown1413.2Available
Larry Nance Jr.1415.6Available
Braden Smith1317.0Available
Jay Huff917.0Available

Knicks

−8 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Jalen Brunson3327.4Available
OG Anunoby3221.7Available
Karl-Anthony Towns3128.0Available
Landry Shamet2716.3Available
Mikal Bridges2418.5Available
Miles McBride1917.9Available
Andre Drummond1417.7Available
Tyler Kolek1219.2Available
Jordan Clarkson1218.0Available
Mohamed Diawara1116.4Available
Jose Alvarado816.6Available
Dalton Knecht614.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersKnicks
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pacers

4 listed

  • T.J. McConnell G

    Day-To-Day

    McConnell is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Wizards due to a strained right hamstring.

  • Tyrese Haliburton G

    Out

    Haliburton (hamstring) is progressing well but does not have a timetable to return, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.

  • Johnny Furphy G

    Out

    Furphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.

  • Ben Sheppard G

    Out

    Head coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.

Knicks

1 listed

  • Josh Hart G

    Out

    Hart (illness) won't play Tuesday against the Bucks, Kristian Winfield of the New York Daily News reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDNY
Against the spread3–43–5
Last 103–43–5
Favorite0–33–4
Underdog3–10–1
Overs–unders2–52–6
Overs–unders, last 102–52–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 12–11 NY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.