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Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast

MNMT

Away

Magic

3-7

56%

at

Home

Wizards

4-7

44%

The pick
ORL · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
113–112
Fair odds
-126

Your pick

Capital One Arena · MNMT

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Magic at 56%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Magic rate higher (1476 to 1326 Elo), lineup changes favor the Wizards and the Wizards have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Magic

Now 44%

46%

with a win

42%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Wizards

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Magic 56%

Lean
ORL 56%WSH 44%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
ORL 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
ORL -1
ORL 54%
Fair odds
ORL -126
WSH +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
ORL 113.4 – 111.7 WSH
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorORLWSHWhy
Team rating14761326Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−28+70ORL: Missing Paolo Banchero −33, Jalen Suggs −4, Izaiyah Nelson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel—−12WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsORL +28 EloORL 54.1%
Market-implied ratingsORL 55.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastORL 55.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards compared, with each team's league rank
ORLStatWSH
26th of 30107.0Points scored108.125th of 30
18th of 30114.6Points allowed113.416th of 30
24th of 30−7.6Margin−5.321st of 30
25th of 30105.8Offense rating106.723rd of 30
22nd of 30113.3Defense rating111.916th of 30
25th of 30100.2Pace101.019th of 30
12th of 303–3Road vs home2–214th of 30
7th of 301523Opponent Elo150616th of 30
19th of 301476Elo rating132629th of 30
26th of 30−2.3Offense, adjusted−2.024th of 30
14th of 30+0.4Defense, adjusted−3.124th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Magic

−28 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Franz Wagner3823.5Available
Desmond Bane3720.4Available
Wendell Carter Jr.3517.2Available
Anthony Black3316.1Available
Jamal Cain2413.5Available
Jase Richardson2314.8Available
Alex Morales1516.7Available
Nikola Vucevic1220.5Available
Goga Bitadze1019.7Available
Jevon Carter914.2Available
Colin Castleton415.4Available
Paolo Banchero—22.6Out−33

Wizards

+70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Trae Young3223.3Available
Kyshawn George3213.3Available
Anthony Davis3128.0Available
AJ Dybantsa2817.1Available
Alex Sarr2415.4Available
Bilal Coulibaly2310.8Available
Tre Johnson2211.8Available
Bub Carrington189.3Available
Deandre Ayton1418.5Available
Will Riley712.2Available
Jamir Watkins—14.4Out
Justin Champagnie—16.8Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MagicWizards
12001300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Magic

6 listed

  • Tristan da Silva F

    Out

    Da Silva (calf) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Jalen Suggs G

    Out

    Suggs (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Kings.

  • Jonathan Isaac F

    Out

    Isaac (knee) is out for Tuesday's game against Sacramento.

  • Paolo Banchero F

    Out

    Banchero is expected to be sidelined for the next four-to-six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

  • Noah Penda F

    Out

    Penda was diagnosed with a partially torn right hamstring Saturday, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.

  • Izaiyah Nelson F

    Out

    Team president Jeff Weltman said Monday that Nelson (ankle) remains about a month away from returning to the court after offseason surgery, per Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com.

Wizards

4 listed

  • Tristan Vukcevic F

    Out

    Vukcevic (hip) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Detroit.

  • Reece Beekman G

    Out

    The Wizards announced Monday that Beekman sustained a right acromioclavicular joint injury and will be re-evaluated in approximately three weeks.

  • Justin Champagnie F

    Out

    Champagnie (foot) is expected to miss several months, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic.

  • Jamir Watkins G

    Out

    The Wizards announced Thursday that Watkins has undergone surgery for a torn ACL.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonORLWSH
Against the spread2–55–4
Last 102–55–4
Favorite1–31–0
Underdog1–24–4
Overs–unders3–42–7
Overs–unders, last 103–42–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ORL 11–2 WSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.