Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Celtics at 90%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Celtics rate higher (1650 to 1352 Elo), the Kings are on a back-to-back and the Kings have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Celtics
Now 100%
100%
with a win
100%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Kings
Now 0%
0%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Celtics 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 83%
- Fair odds
- BOS -890
- SAC +890 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BOS 119.8 – 103.1 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1650 | 1352 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | +18 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +273 Elo | BOS 82.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 90.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 89.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 108.324th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.0 | Points allowed | 121.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | −12.728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 106.024th of 30 |
| 6th of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 118.428th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 102.26th of 30 |
| 1st of 289–1 | Last 10 | 1–926th of 28 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 0–627th of 30 |
| 26th of 301468 | Opponent Elo | 151712th of 30 |
| 4th of 301650 | Elo rating | 135227th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.4 | Offense, adjusted | −2.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+5.5 | Defense, adjusted | −4.028th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Celtics
−11 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 31 | 28.8 | Available |
| Paul George | 28 | 21.2 | Available |
| Derrick White | 27 | 21.8 | Available |
| Payton Pritchard | 26 | 22.9 | Available |
| Neemias Queta | 21 | 24.0 | Available |
| Sam Hauser | 20 | 18.9 | Available |
| Baylor Scheierman | 19 | 16.6 | Available |
| Mitchell Robinson | 17 | 20.5 | Available |
| Jordan Walsh | 15 | 15.4 | Available |
| Hugo Gonzalez | 14 | 16.7 | Available |
| Luka Garza | 12 | 22.5 | Available |
Kings
+18 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 36 | 17.3 | Available |
| De'Andre Hunter | 32 | 16.6 | Available |
| Domantas Sabonis | 31 | 23.4 | Available |
| Zach LaVine | 30 | 17.6 | Available |
| Keegan Murray | 25 | 14.6 | Available |
| Dylan Cardwell | 21 | 16.7 | Available |
| Leaky Black | 19 | 12.9 | Available |
| Emanuel Sharp | 18 | 15.4 | Available |
| Malik Monk | 15 | 17.4 | Available |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 7 | 12.9 | Available |
| Maxime Raynaud | — | 15.8 | Out |
| Precious Achiuwa | — | 15.7 | Out |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Celtics
Nothing on the injury report.
Kings
3 listedPrecious Achiuwa F
OutAchiuwa left Tuesday's 107-100 loss to the Magic with a left lower leg contusion and did not return, Matt George of ABC 10 Sacramento reports.
Maxime Raynaud C
OutRaynaud (knee) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against Orlando.
Ben Simmons G
OutSimmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–1 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.