LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Spurs at 88%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Spurs rate higher (1670 to 1491 Elo), lineup changes favor the Spurs and the Spurs have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Clippers
Now 14%
17%
with a win
14%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
Spurs
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
100%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Spurs 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -11
- SA 85%
- Fair odds
- SA -716
- LAC +716 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- LAC 105.4 – 120.3 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1670 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −70 | 0 | LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −16, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Missing Tobias Harris −1 (from the injury report) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +308 Elo | SA 85.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 88.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 87.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 118.74th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 107.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.9 | Margin | +11.71st of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 105.14th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.018th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 4th of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 147025th of 30 |
| 16th of 301491 | Elo rating | 16701st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Offense, adjusted | +2.92nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.1 | Defense, adjusted | +4.75th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Clippers
−70 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland | 30 | 22.1 | Available |
| Rui Hachimura | 27 | 15.9 | Available |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 26 | 16.9 | Available |
| Kris Dunn | 25 | 15.3 | Available |
| Kobe Sanders | 23 | 15.2 | Available |
| Brook Lopez | 22 | 17.5 | Available |
| Max Strus | 21 | 16.3 | Available |
| Keaton Wagler | 19 | 17.6 | Available |
| Isaiah Jackson | 18 | 18.9 | Available |
| Gradey Dick | 14 | 14.7 | Available |
| Baba Miller | 9 | 18.7 | Available |
| Brandon Ingram | — | 20.4 | Out−16 |
Spurs
0 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 29 | 24.1 | Available |
| Stephon Castle | 28 | 22.0 | Available |
| De'Aaron Fox | 27 | 24.0 | Available |
| Victor Wembanyama | 27 | 35.5 | Available |
| Keldon Johnson | 24 | 19.7 | Available |
| Julian Champagnie | 24 | 19.1 | Available |
| Devin Vassell | 17 | 19.6 | Day-To-Day |
| Harrison Barnes | 15 | 17.8 | Available |
| Luke Kornet | 14 | 19.8 | Available |
| Carter Bryant | 10 | 14.2 | Available |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 7 | 17.2 | Available |
| Maliq Brown | 6 | 17.9 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Clippers
5 listedCam Christie G
OutChristie (ankle) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix.
Yanic Konan Niederhauser C
OutNiederhauser (foot) is out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.
Brandon Ingram F
OutIngram (Achilles) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game at Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.
Bradley Beal G
OutBeal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.
Jordan Miller G
OutMiller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.
Spurs
3 listedDevin Vassell G
Day-To-DayVassell (groin) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls, NBA reporter Matthew Tynan reports.
Tobias Harris F
OutHarris (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Chicago, Jared Weiss of The Athletic reports.
Jayden Quaintance F
OutQuaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 6–4 SA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Apr 2SA 118 @ LAC 99Picked LAC 56%Miss
- Mar 16SA 119 @ LAC 115Picked SA 74%Hit
- Mar 6LAC 112 @ SA 116Picked SA 71%Hit
- Apr 8SA 117 @ LAC 122Picked LAC 84%Hit
- Jan 29LAC 128 @ SA 116Picked LAC 61%Hit
- Dec 31LAC 86 @ SA 122Picked SA 59%Hit
- Nov 4SA 104 @ LAC 113Picked LAC 61%Hit
- Nov 22LAC 109 @ SA 102Picked LAC 63%Hit