New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
- The pick
- NY · Toss-up
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 109–109
- Fair odds
- -111
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Knicks at 53%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Timberwolves have home court, lineup changes favor the Knicks and the Knicks rate higher (1658 to 1638 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Knicks
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Timberwolves
Now 97%
98%
with a win
97%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 51%
- Fair odds
- NY -111
- MIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NY 109.4 – 108.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1658 | 1638 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | −33 | NY: Missing Josh Hart −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Missing Anthony Edwards −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NY +9 Elo | NY 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.3 | Points allowed | 107.06th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+8.3 | Margin | +11.13rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 114.88th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.9 | Defense rating | 104.01st of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 149221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301658 | Elo rating | 16385th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Offense, adjusted | +1.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+6.9 | Defense, adjusted | +3.07th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Knicks
−8 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 33 | 27.4 | Available |
| OG Anunoby | 32 | 21.7 | Available |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 31 | 28.0 | Available |
| Landry Shamet | 27 | 16.3 | Available |
| Mikal Bridges | 24 | 18.5 | Available |
| Miles McBride | 19 | 17.9 | Available |
| Andre Drummond | 14 | 17.7 | Available |
| Tyler Kolek | 12 | 19.2 | Available |
| Jordan Clarkson | 12 | 18.0 | Available |
| Mohamed Diawara | 11 | 16.4 | Available |
| Jose Alvarado | 8 | 16.6 | Available |
| Dalton Knecht | 6 | 14.9 | Available |
Timberwolves
−33 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 34 | 17.8 | Available |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 32 | 18.5 | Available |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 29 | 19.8 | Available |
| LaMelo Ball | 29 | 25.7 | Available |
| Rudy Gobert | 28 | 20.4 | Available |
| Trey Lyles | 21 | 16.5 | Available |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 20 | 16.0 | Available |
| Jaylen Clark | 17 | 15.9 | Available |
| Joan Beringer | 14 | 20.5 | Available |
| Bones Hyland | 11 | 18.7 | Available |
| Anthony Edwards | — | 26.1 | Out−40 |
| Donte DiVincenzo | — | 18.3 | Out |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Knicks
1 listedJosh Hart G
OutHart (illness) won't play Tuesday against the Bucks, Kristian Winfield of the New York Daily News reports.
Timberwolves
2 listedAnthony Edwards G
OutEdwards underwent a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday, the Timberwolves announced.
Donte DiVincenzo G
OutDiVincenzo (Achilles) remains confident that he'll return during the 2026-27 season, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 9–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.