Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Thunder at 59%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Thunder rate higher (1657 to 1522 Elo), lineup changes favor the Hawks and the Thunder have home court.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Hawks
Now 92%
93%
with a win
92%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
Thunder
Now >99%
>99%
with a win
>99%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Thunder 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- OKC 61%
- Fair odds
- OKC -146
- ATL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- ATL 111.8 – 114.7 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1657 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −80 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −39, Jalen Williams −31, Jaylin Williams −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Travel | — | −24 | OKC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +78 Elo | OKC 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 111.420th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 105.94th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +5.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 110.518th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 105.15th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Pace | 100.622nd of 30 |
| 14th of 285–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 28 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 27th of 301466 | Opponent Elo | 151414th of 30 |
| 13th of 301522 | Elo rating | 16573rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.3 | Offense, adjusted | +0.614th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.6 | Defense, adjusted | +4.74th of 30 |
Who's playing
Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.
Hawks
−11 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 31 | 23.3 | Available |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 29 | 20.3 | Available |
| Dyson Daniels | 28 | 20.5 | Available |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 28 | 20.7 | Available |
| Aaron Wiggins | 22 | 19.3 | Available |
| CJ McCollum | 22 | 20.1 | Available |
| Luguentz Dort | 22 | 14.2 | Available |
| Kingston Flemings | 21 | 17.1 | Available |
| Jalen Wilson | 12 | 11.6 | Available |
| Jock Landale | 9 | 18.8 | Available |
| Zuby Ejiofor | 6 | 18.4 | Available |
| RayJ Dennis | 5 | 16.0 | Available |
Thunder
−80 Elo| Player | Min | Rating | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 36.4 | Available |
| Ajay Mitchell | 28 | 24.4 | Available |
| Jared McCain | 27 | 17.9 | Available |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 24 | 23.7 | Available |
| Aday Mara | 23 | 18.6 | Available |
| Bennett Stirtz | 21 | 17.9 | Available |
| Kenrich Williams | 21 | 17.8 | Available |
| Micah Peavy | 20 | 12.8 | Available |
| Alex Caruso | 18 | 22.1 | Available |
| Josh Dix | 13 | 16.4 | Available |
| Nique Clifford | 10 | 11.9 | Available |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 5 | 13.5 | Available |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Hawks
4 listedAsa Newell F
OutNewell (toe) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.
Keshon Gilbert G
OutGilbert (knee) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Lakers.
Mouhamed Gueye F
OutGueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked On Podcast Network reports.
Henri Veesaar C
OutVeesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.
Thunder
5 listedJaylin Williams F
OutWilliams (back) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Trail Blazers.
Thomas Sorber C
OutSorber (knee) is out for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers.
Cason Wallace G
OutWallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Chet Holmgren C
OutHolmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.
Jalen Williams G
OutWilliams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–5 OKC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.