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Utah Jazz at LA Clippers, NBA forecast

ClipperVision, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

Away

Jazz

1-10

28%

at

Home

Clippers

2-8

72%

The pick
LAC · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
111–118
Fair odds
-252

Your pick

Intuit Dome · ClipperVision, KJZZ-TV, Jazz+

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Clippers at 72%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Clippers rate higher (1491 to 1309 Elo), lineup changes favor the Jazz and the Clippers have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Jazz

Now 0%

0%

with a win

0%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Clippers

Now 14%

15%

with a win

12%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Clippers 72%

Strong
UTAH 28%LAC 72%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
LAC 72%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAC -6.5
LAC 74%
Fair odds
LAC -252
UTAH +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
UTAH 111.1 – 118.1 LAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorUTAHLACWhy
Team rating13091491Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−31−70UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −39, Jaren Jackson Jr. −27, Keyonte George −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −16, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsLAC +180 EloLAC 73.8%
Market-implied ratingsLAC 71.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAC 71.6%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Utah Jazz and LA Clippers compared, with each team's league rank
UTAHStatLAC
28th of 30106.5Points scored112.219th of 30
23rd of 30117.6Points allowed118.124th of 30
26th of 30−11.2Margin−5.923rd of 30
29th of 30102.5Offense rating109.120th of 30
21st of 30113.3Defense rating114.825th of 30
11th of 30102.0Pace101.712th of 30
27th of 300–5Road vs home2–321st of 30
6th of 301526Opponent Elo15344th of 30
30th of 301309Elo rating149116th of 30
25th of 30−2.2Offense, adjusted−0.319th of 30
27th of 30−4.0Defense, adjusted−1.119th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Jazz

−31 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Ace Bailey3413.1Available
Darryn Peterson3216.5Available
Jaxson Hayes2518.3Available
Josh Green2412.4Available
Josh Okogie2213.6Available
Isaiah Collier1913.7Available
Svi Mykhailiuk1713.9Available
Brice Sensabaugh1715.1Available
Mo Bamba1515.9Available
Kyle Filipowski1216.7Available
Tony Bradley916.2Available
Harrison Ingram618.3Available

Clippers

−70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Garland3022.1Available
Rui Hachimura2715.9Available
Derrick Jones Jr.2616.9Available
Kris Dunn2515.3Available
Kobe Sanders2315.2Available
Brook Lopez2217.5Available
Max Strus2116.3Available
Keaton Wagler1917.6Available
Isaiah Jackson1818.9Available
Gradey Dick1414.7Available
Baba Miller918.7Available
Brandon Ingram—20.4Out−16

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

JazzClippers
12001300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Jazz

4 listed

  • Lauri Markkanen F

    Out

    Markkanen is out for Tuesday's game versus the Heat with a right wrist sprain.

  • Keyonte George G

    Out

    George (ankle) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Heat.

  • Jusuf Nurkic C

    Out

    Nurkic (toe) has begun participating in on-court activities as he continues recovering from a right foot injury sustained during an Oct. 4 preseason game against Denver. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the Jazz announced Friday.

  • Jaren Jackson Jr. F

    Out

    Jackson has been diagnosed with a torn MCL in his right knee and will be sidelined for 6-to-8 weeks, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Clippers

5 listed

  • Cam Christie G

    Out

    Christie (ankle) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix.

  • Yanic Konan Niederhauser C

    Out

    Niederhauser (foot) is out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Brandon Ingram F

    Out

    Ingram (Achilles) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game at Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Bradley Beal G

    Out

    Beal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.

  • Jordan Miller G

    Out

    Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonUTAHLAC
Against the spread2–84–4
Last 102–84–4
Favorite0–11–0
Underdog2–73–4
Overs–unders1–95–3
Overs–unders, last 101–95–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

UTAH 3–8 LAC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.