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Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast

DAZN (YES)

Away

76ers

9-3

75%

at

Home

Nets

2-8

25%

The pick
PHI · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
115–106
Fair odds
-304

Your pick

Barclays Center · DAZN (YES)

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the 76ers at 75%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the 76ers rate higher (1511 to 1335 Elo), the Nets have home court and lineup changes favor the 76ers.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

76ers

Now 90%

91%

with a win

88%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

Nets

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

76ers 75%

Strong
PHI 75%BKN 25%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHI 75%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI -6.5
PHI 73%
Fair odds
PHI -304
BKN +304 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHI 114.7 – 106.2 BKN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHIBKNWhy
Team rating15111335Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+63+38PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel—−12BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsPHI +177 EloPHI 73.4%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 75.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 75.2%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatBKN
23rd of 30110.2Points scored106.727th of 30
8th of 30109.2Points allowed115.721st of 30
16th of 30+1.0Margin−9.025th of 30
22nd of 30108.5Offense rating104.128th of 30
8th of 30107.5Defense rating112.919th of 30
16th of 30101.4Pace101.514th of 30
3rd of 305–1Road vs home1–323rd of 30
8th of 301521Opponent Elo151910th of 30
15th of 301511Elo rating133528th of 30
22nd of 30−1.0Offense, adjusted−4.729th of 30
9th of 30+1.4Defense, adjusted−1.420th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

76ers

+63 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Tyrese Maxey3424.4Available
VJ Edgecombe3217.2Available
Jaylen Brown3225.5Available
LeBron James3125.1Available
Joel Embiid2929.6Available
Dean Wade2115.3Available
Anfernee Simons1817.5Available
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope1813.8Available
Jabari Walker1215.6Available
Tacko Fall517.8Available
Adem Bona—14.8Out
Dominick Barlow—15.9Out

Nets

+38 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Michael Porter Jr.3120.2Available
Julius Randle3121.3Available
Day'Ron Sharpe2320.6Available
Mikel Brown Jr.2016.5Available
Danny Wolf1914.1Available
Noah Clowney1611.0Available
Moritz Wagner1619.9Available
Chaney Johnson1614.1Available
Keon Ellis1513.5Available
Nolan Traore1312.5Day-To-Day
Ben Saraf1311.5Available
Terance Mann1312.4Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

76ersNets
1250135014501550league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

76ers

3 listed

  • Adem Bona C

    Out

    Bona (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.

  • Dominick Barlow F

    Out

    Head coach Nick Nurse said Wednesday that Barlow (back) likely needs another 10-12 days before he's cleared to return to the court, Derek Bodner of AllPHLY.com reports.

  • Ariel Hukporti C

    Out

    Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Nets

3 listed

  • Nolan Traore G

    Day-To-Day

    Traore (calf) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against New Orleans.

  • Egor Demin G

    Out

    Demin (leg) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans, Erik Slater of ClutchPoints.com reports.

  • Grant Nelson F

    Day-To-Day

    Nelson signed a two-way contract with the Nets on Friday, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHIBKN
Against the spread6–54–3
Last 105–54–3
Favorite3–40–1
Underdog3–14–2
Overs–unders5–63–4
Overs–unders, last 105–53–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 7–5 BKN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.