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Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast

DAZN CLE

Away

Bulls

1-8

19%

at

Home

Cavaliers

5-6

81%

The pick
CLE · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
113–124
Fair odds
-414

Your pick

Rocket Arena · DAZN CLE

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Cavaliers at 81%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Cavaliers rate higher (1548 to 1371 Elo), the Cavaliers have home court and lineup changes favor the Cavaliers.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Bulls

Now <1%

1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Cavaliers

Now 93%

93%

with a win

91%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Cavaliers 81%

Strong
CHI 19%CLE 81%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CLE 81%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -8.5
CLE 80%
Fair odds
CLE -414
CHI +414 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
CHI 113.4 – 124.2 CLE
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCHICLEWhy
Team rating13711548Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−37−17CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Travel−12—CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsCLE +244 EloCLE 80.3%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 80.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 80.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers compared, with each team's league rank
CHIStatCLE
18th of 30112.7Points scored116.510th of 30
30th of 30129.3Points allowed115.019th of 30
30th of 30−16.7Margin+1.515th of 30
26th of 30105.4Offense rating113.313th of 30
30th of 30121.0Defense rating111.815th of 30
1st of 30107.0Pace102.010th of 30
25th of 301–5Road vs home4–28th of 30
3rd of 301538Opponent Elo151513th of 30
25th of 301371Elo rating154810th of 30
11th of 30+0.9Offense, adjusted+2.16th of 30
30th of 30−7.5Defense, adjusted−0.516th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Bulls

−37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Josh Giddey2820.9Available
Caleb Wilson2716.3Available
Matas Buzelis2515.9Available
Jalen Smith2120.7Available
Nic Claxton2015.1Available
Isaac Okoro1912.3Available
Tre Jones1720.2Available
Norman Powell1521.2Day-To-Day−9
Patrick Williams1410.7Available
Noa Essengue1214.8Available
Leonard Miller1217.1Available
Jordan Hawkins911.8Available

Cavaliers

−17 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Donovan Mitchell3128.1Available
James Harden3123.2Available
Evan Mobley3024.4Available
Peyton Watson2516.5Available
Meleek Thomas2217.9Available
Jarrett Allen2226.0Available
Mario Hezonja2017.4Available
Tyrese Proctor1917.5Available
Thomas Bryant1118.9Available
Craig Porter Jr.1117.2Available
Riley Minix718.9Available
Ernest Udeh Jr.517.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BullsCavaliers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Bulls

3 listed

  • Norman Powell G

    Day-To-Day

    Powell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.

  • Tobe Awaka F

    Day-To-Day

    Awaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

  • Zach Collins F

    Day-To-Day

    Collins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

Cavaliers

2 listed

  • Sam Merrill G

    Out

    Merrill (elbow) is listed as out for Wednesday's game against the Knicks.

  • Jaylon Tyson G

    Out

    Tyson (ankle) is questionable to face the Knicks on Wednesday.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCHICLE
Against the spread4–52–7
Last 104–52–7
Favorite0–11–5
Underdog4–41–2
Overs–unders6–35–4
Overs–unders, last 106–35–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CHI 3–9 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.