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Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast

Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live

Away

Lakers

10-2

65%

at

Home

Suns

4-6

35%

The pick
LAL · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
117–112
Fair odds
-186

Your pick

Mortgage Matchup Center · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Lakers at 65%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Lakers rate higher (1625 to 1491 Elo), lineup changes favor the Lakers and the Suns have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Lakers

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

>99%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Suns

Now 35%

38%

with a win

33%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Lakers 65%

Solid
LAL 65%PHX 35%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
LAL 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAL -4.5
LAL 67%
Fair odds
LAL -186
PHX +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
LAL 117.1 – 112.3 PHX
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLALPHXWhy
Team rating16251491Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+28−10LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Missing Mark Williams −13 (from the injury report)
Travel−12—LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsLAL +125 EloLAL 67.2%
Market-implied ratingsLAL 64.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAL 65.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns compared, with each team's league rank
LALStatPHX
1st of 30122.1Points scored112.816th of 30
17th of 30114.4Points allowed118.124th of 30
9th of 30+7.7Margin−5.322nd of 30
1st of 30119.6Offense rating111.916th of 30
17th of 30112.1Defense rating117.227th of 30
8th of 30102.2Pace100.523rd of 30
3rd of 305–1Road vs home4–313th of 30
21st of 301489Opponent Elo15571st of 30
6th of 301625Elo rating149117th of 30
1st of 30+3.1Offense, adjusted−0.320th of 30
12th of 30+0.7Defense, adjusted−0.717th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Lakers

+28 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Luka Doncic3434.0Available
Austin Reaves3323.1Available
Walker Kessler2819.7Available
Jake LaRavia2414.9Available
Matisse Thybulle2215.0Available
Sandro Mamukelashvili2221.8Available
Ziaire Williams2113.5Available
Collin Sexton1919.7Available
Quentin Grimes1415.7Day-To-Day
Jarred Vanderbilt615.1Available
Adou Thiero416.0Available

Suns

−10 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Devin Booker3124.0Available
Dillon Brooks2715.8Available
Miles Bridges2519.7Available
Jalen Green2518.4Available
Collin Gillespie2217.7Available
Oso Ighodaro2015.9Available
Ryan Dunn1914.5Available
Khaman Maluach1817.4Available
Luke Kennard1716.9Available
Jordan Goodwin1617.3Available
Pat Spencer615.7Available
Rasheer Fleming416.8Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

LakersSuns
1400145015001550160016501700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Lakers

1 listed

  • Quentin Grimes G

    Day-To-Day

    Grimes (finger) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game in Milwaukee.

Suns

1 listed

  • Mark Williams C

    Out

    Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLALPHX
Against the spread6–32–7
Last 106–32–7
Favorite5–32–1
Underdog1–00–6
Overs–unders5–46–3
Overs–unders, last 105–46–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAL 7–7 PHX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.