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Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast

DAZN IND

Away

Pacers

3-8

21%

at

Home

76ers

9-3

79%

The pick
PHI · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
108–118
Fair odds
-376

Your pick

Xfinity Mobile Arena · DAZN IND

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the 76ers at 79%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the 76ers rate higher (1511 to 1380 Elo), lineup changes favor the 76ers and the 76ers have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pacers

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

76ers

Now 90%

90%

with a win

87%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

76ers 79%

Strong
IND 21%PHI 79%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHI 79%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI -7.5
PHI 77%
Fair odds
PHI -376
IND +376 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
IND 107.6 – 117.7 PHI
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDPHIWhy
Team rating13801511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+19+63IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −50, T.J. McConnell (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsPHI +211 EloPHI 77.1%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 79.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 79.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatPHI
20th of 30111.4Points scored110.223rd of 30
20th of 30115.2Points allowed109.28th of 30
18th of 30−3.8Margin+1.016th of 30
21st of 30108.8Offense rating108.522nd of 30
18th of 30112.5Defense rating107.58th of 30
8th of 30102.1Pace101.416th of 30
23rd of 282–8Last 107–35th of 28
12th of 303–3Road vs home4–28th of 30
29th of 301442Opponent Elo15218th of 30
24th of 301380Elo rating151115th of 30
23rd of 30−1.2Offense, adjusted−1.022nd of 30
23rd of 30−2.3Defense, adjusted+1.49th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Andrew Nembhard3017.2Available
Pascal Siakam3023.3Available
Aaron Nesmith2615.6Available
Quenton Jackson2118.2Available
Jarace Walker1913.2Available
Ivica Zubac1822.8Available
Kelly Oubre Jr.1714.3Available
Obi Toppin1720.1Available
Kobe Brown1413.2Available
Larry Nance Jr.1415.6Available
Braden Smith1317.0Available
Jay Huff917.0Available

76ers

+63 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Tyrese Maxey3424.4Available
VJ Edgecombe3217.2Available
Jaylen Brown3225.5Available
LeBron James3125.1Available
Joel Embiid2929.6Available
Dean Wade2115.3Available
Anfernee Simons1817.5Available
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope1813.8Available
Jabari Walker1215.6Available
Tacko Fall517.8Available
Adem Bona—14.8Out
Dominick Barlow—15.9Out

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Pacers76ers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pacers

4 listed

  • T.J. McConnell G

    Day-To-Day

    McConnell is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Wizards due to a strained right hamstring.

  • Tyrese Haliburton G

    Out

    Haliburton (hamstring) is progressing well but does not have a timetable to return, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.

  • Johnny Furphy G

    Out

    Furphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.

  • Ben Sheppard G

    Out

    Head coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.

76ers

3 listed

  • Adem Bona C

    Out

    Bona (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.

  • Dominick Barlow F

    Out

    Head coach Nick Nurse said Wednesday that Barlow (back) likely needs another 10-12 days before he's cleared to return to the court, Derek Bodner of AllPHLY.com reports.

  • Ariel Hukporti C

    Out

    Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDPHI
Against the spread3–46–5
Last 103–45–5
Favorite0–33–4
Underdog3–13–1
Overs–unders2–55–6
Overs–unders, last 102–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 5–7 PHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.