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New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Pelicans

4-7

48%

at

Home

Clippers

2-8

52%

The pick
LAC · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
116–117
Fair odds
-108

Your pick

Intuit Dome · ClipperVision, GCSEN, Pelicans.com

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Clippers 52%). It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Pelicans, the Clippers rate higher (1491 to 1421 Elo) and the Clippers have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Pelicans

Now 2%

2%

with a win

2%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Clippers

Now 14%

16%

with a win

12%

with a loss

This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Clippers 52%

Toss-up
NO 48%LAC 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
LAC 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAC -0.5
LAC 53%
Fair odds
LAC -108
NO +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
NO 116.4 – 117.0 LAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNOLACWhy
Team rating14211491Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+16−70NO: Missing Trey Murphy III (40% to sit) −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −16, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsLAC +20 EloLAC 52.9%
Market-implied ratingsLAC 51.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAC 52.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New Orleans Pelicans and LA Clippers compared, with each team's league rank
NOStatLAC
8th of 30117.5Points scored112.219th of 30
29th of 30122.4Points allowed118.124th of 30
20th of 30−4.9Margin−5.923rd of 30
17th of 30111.2Offense rating109.120th of 30
26th of 30115.8Defense rating114.825th of 30
5th of 30102.7Pace101.712th of 30
22nd of 301–4Road vs home2–321st of 30
28th of 301461Opponent Elo15344th of 30
23rd of 301421Elo rating149116th of 30
10th of 30+1.3Offense, adjusted−0.319th of 30
29th of 30−4.7Defense, adjusted−1.119th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Pelicans

+16 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Zion Williamson3126.3Available
Jeremiah Fears3016.8Available
Dejounte Murray2819.6Available
Saddiq Bey2618.5Available
Herbert Jones2213.8Available
Derik Queen2017.2Available
Trey Murphy III1919.7Day-To-Day−7
Karlo Matkovic1817.5Available
Bennedict Mathurin1517.3Available
Jordan Poole1215.0Available
Bryce McGowens1013.0Available
Julian Reese515.4Available

Clippers

−70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Garland3022.1Available
Rui Hachimura2715.9Available
Derrick Jones Jr.2616.9Available
Kris Dunn2515.3Available
Kobe Sanders2315.2Available
Brook Lopez2217.5Available
Max Strus2116.3Available
Keaton Wagler1917.6Available
Isaiah Jackson1818.9Available
Gradey Dick1414.7Available
Baba Miller918.7Available
Brandon Ingram—20.4Out−16

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PelicansClippers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Pelicans

3 listed

  • Trendon Watford F

    Out

    Watford (ankle) is out for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Trey Murphy III F

    Day-To-Day

    Murphy (knee) is probable for Wednesday's game against the Nets.

  • Yves Missi C

    Out

    Missi (knee) is out for Friday's game against Minnesota.

Clippers

5 listed

  • Cam Christie G

    Out

    Christie (ankle) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix.

  • Yanic Konan Niederhauser C

    Out

    Niederhauser (foot) is out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Brandon Ingram F

    Out

    Ingram (Achilles) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game at Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Bradley Beal G

    Out

    Beal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.

  • Jordan Miller G

    Out

    Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNOLAC
Against the spread6–34–4
Last 106–34–4
Favorite1–11–0
Underdog5–23–4
Overs–unders5–45–3
Overs–unders, last 105–45–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NO 6–6 LAC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.