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Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Lakers

10-2

37%

at

Home

Spurs

9-2

63%

The pick
SA · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
112–116
Fair odds
-172

Your pick

Frost Bank Center · Prime Video

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Spurs at 63%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Spurs rate higher (1670 to 1625 Elo), the Spurs have home court and lineup changes favor the Lakers.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Lakers

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

99%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Spurs

Now >99%

>99%

with a win

100%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Spurs 63%

Solid
LAL 37%SA 63%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
SA 63%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SA -2
SA 58%
Fair odds
SA -172
LAL +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
LAL 111.6 – 115.7 SA
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLALSAWhy
Team rating16251670Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+270LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Missing Tobias Harris −1 (from the injury report)
Travel−24−24LAL crossed 2 time zones and SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsSA +53 EloSA 57.6%
Market-implied ratingsSA 63.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSA 63.2%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs compared, with each team's league rank
LALStatSA
1st of 30122.1Points scored118.74th of 30
17th of 30114.4Points allowed107.06th of 30
8th of 30+7.7Margin+11.71st of 30
1st of 30119.6Offense rating116.65th of 30
17th of 30112.1Defense rating105.14th of 30
7th of 30102.2Pace101.018th of 30
3rd of 288–2Last 109–11st of 28
3rd of 305–1Road vs home4–28th of 30
20th of 301492Opponent Elo147025th of 30
6th of 301625Elo rating16701st of 30
1st of 30+3.1Offense, adjusted+2.92nd of 30
12th of 30+0.7Defense, adjusted+4.75th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Lakers

+27 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Luka Doncic3434.0Available
Austin Reaves3323.0Available
Walker Kessler2819.7Available
Jake LaRavia2414.9Available
Matisse Thybulle2215.0Available
Sandro Mamukelashvili2221.8Available
Ziaire Williams2113.5Available
Collin Sexton1919.7Available
Quentin Grimes1415.7Day-To-Day
Jarred Vanderbilt615.1Available
Adou Thiero416.0Available

Spurs

0 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Dylan Harper2924.1Available
Stephon Castle2822.0Available
De'Aaron Fox2724.0Available
Victor Wembanyama2735.5Available
Keldon Johnson2419.7Available
Julian Champagnie2419.1Available
Devin Vassell1719.6Day-To-Day
Harrison Barnes1517.8Available
Luke Kornet1419.8Available
Carter Bryant1014.2Available
Jordan McLaughlin717.2Available
Maliq Brown617.9Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

LakersSpurs
14001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Lakers

1 listed

  • Quentin Grimes G

    Day-To-Day

    Grimes (finger) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game in Milwaukee.

Spurs

3 listed

  • Devin Vassell G

    Day-To-Day

    Vassell (groin) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Bulls, NBA reporter Matthew Tynan reports.

  • Tobias Harris F

    Out

    Harris (calf) is out for Wednesday's game against Chicago, Jared Weiss of The Athletic reports.

  • Jayden Quaintance F

    Out

    Quaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLALSA
Against the spread6–35–6
Last 106–35–5
Favorite5–35–6
Underdog1–0—
Overs–unders5–43–8
Overs–unders, last 105–43–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAL 6–5 SA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.