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Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

76ers

9-3

71%

at

Home

Pacers

3-8

29%

The pick
PHI · Strong
Line
Not yet
Projected
116–109
Fair odds
-248

Your pick

Gainbridge Fieldhouse

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the 76ers at 71%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the 76ers rate higher (1511 to 1380 Elo), lineup changes favor the 76ers and the Pacers have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

76ers

Now 90%

90%

with a win

88%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Pacers

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

76ers 71%

Strong
PHI 71%IND 29%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
PHI 71%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI -5
PHI 69%
Fair odds
PHI -248
IND +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
PHI 116.1 – 109.2 IND
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHIINDWhy
Team rating15111380Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+63+19PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −50, T.J. McConnell (40% to sit) −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsPHI +139 EloPHI 69.0%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 71.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 71.3%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatIND
23rd of 30110.2Points scored111.420th of 30
8th of 30109.2Points allowed115.220th of 30
16th of 30+1.0Margin−3.818th of 30
22nd of 30108.5Offense rating108.821st of 30
8th of 30107.5Defense rating112.518th of 30
16th of 30101.4Pace102.18th of 30
5th of 287–3Last 102–823rd of 28
3rd of 305–1Road vs home0–427th of 30
8th of 301521Opponent Elo144229th of 30
15th of 301511Elo rating138024th of 30
22nd of 30−1.0Offense, adjusted−1.223rd of 30
9th of 30+1.4Defense, adjusted−2.323rd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

76ers

+63 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Tyrese Maxey3424.4Available
VJ Edgecombe3217.2Available
Jaylen Brown3225.5Available
LeBron James3125.1Available
Joel Embiid2929.6Available
Dean Wade2115.3Available
Anfernee Simons1817.5Available
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope1813.8Available
Jabari Walker1215.6Available
Tacko Fall517.8Available
Adem Bona—14.8Out
Dominick Barlow—15.9Out

Pacers

+19 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Andrew Nembhard3017.2Available
Pascal Siakam3023.3Available
Aaron Nesmith2615.6Available
Quenton Jackson2118.2Available
Jarace Walker1913.2Available
Ivica Zubac1822.8Available
Kelly Oubre Jr.1714.3Available
Obi Toppin1720.1Available
Kobe Brown1413.2Available
Larry Nance Jr.1415.6Available
Braden Smith1317.0Available
Jay Huff917.0Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

76ersPacers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

76ers

3 listed

  • Adem Bona C

    Out

    Bona (back) is out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.

  • Dominick Barlow F

    Out

    Head coach Nick Nurse said Wednesday that Barlow (back) likely needs another 10-12 days before he's cleared to return to the court, Derek Bodner of AllPHLY.com reports.

  • Ariel Hukporti C

    Out

    Hukporti has sustained a season-ending ruptured right Achilles tendon, per Shams Charania of ESPN.

Pacers

4 listed

  • T.J. McConnell G

    Day-To-Day

    McConnell is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Wizards due to a strained right hamstring.

  • Tyrese Haliburton G

    Out

    Haliburton (hamstring) is progressing well but does not have a timetable to return, Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star reports.

  • Johnny Furphy G

    Out

    Furphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.

  • Ben Sheppard G

    Out

    Head coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHIIND
Against the spread6–53–4
Last 105–53–4
Favorite3–40–3
Underdog3–13–1
Overs–unders5–62–5
Overs–unders, last 105–52–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 7–5 IND in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.