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LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Clippers

2-8

35%

at

Home

Grizzlies

7-3

65%

The pick
MEM · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
113–117
Fair odds
-187

Your pick

FedExForum · ClipperVision

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Grizzlies at 65%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Grizzlies, the Clippers rate higher (1491 to 1443 Elo) and the Grizzlies have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Clippers

Now 14%

16%

with a win

13%

with a loss

This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.

Grizzlies

Now 7%

8%

with a win

6%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Grizzlies 65%

Solid
LAC 35%MEM 65%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MEM 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MEM -4.5
MEM 67%
Fair odds
MEM -187
LAC +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
LAC 112.6 – 117.4 MEM
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLACMEMWhy
Team rating14911443Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−70+65LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −16, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −5, Jordan Miller −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Scotty Pippen Jr. −3, Richie Saunders −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsMEM +123 EloMEM 67.0%
Market-implied ratingsMEM 64.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMEM 65.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
LA Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies compared, with each team's league rank
LACStatMEM
19th of 30112.2Points scored117.97th of 30
24th of 30118.1Points allowed110.811th of 30
23rd of 30−5.9Margin+7.19th of 30
20th of 30109.1Offense rating114.97th of 30
25th of 30114.8Defense rating108.09th of 30
12th of 30101.7Pace101.415th of 30
27th of 300–5Road vs home2–321st of 30
4th of 301534Opponent Elo143730th of 30
16th of 301491Elo rating144322nd of 30
19th of 30−0.3Offense, adjusted+0.615th of 30
19th of 30−1.1Defense, adjusted−2.022nd of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Clippers

−70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Darius Garland3022.1Available
Rui Hachimura2715.9Available
Derrick Jones Jr.2616.9Available
Kris Dunn2515.3Available
Kobe Sanders2315.2Available
Brook Lopez2217.5Available
Max Strus2116.3Available
Keaton Wagler1917.6Available
Isaiah Jackson1818.9Available
Gradey Dick1414.7Available
Baba Miller918.7Available
Brandon Ingram—20.4Out−16

Grizzlies

+65 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Cameron Boozer3018.6Available
Ty Jerome2926.7Available
Cedric Coward2620.2Available
Jaylen Wells2515.5Available
Jerami Grant2216.5Available
Zach Edey2122.1Available
Javon Small2117.5Available
Cam Spencer1920.1Available
GG Jackson1216.6Available
Isaiah Stewart917.6Day-To-Day
Kris Murray913.0Available
Taylor Hendricks713.2Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ClippersGrizzlies
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Clippers

5 listed

  • Cam Christie G

    Out

    Christie (ankle) is listed as out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix.

  • Yanic Konan Niederhauser C

    Out

    Niederhauser (foot) is out for Tuesday's game against Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Brandon Ingram F

    Out

    Ingram (Achilles) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game at Phoenix, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com reports.

  • Bradley Beal G

    Out

    Beal (knee) will not be ready for the start of the regular season, NBA writer Justin Russo reports.

  • Jordan Miller G

    Out

    Miller underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn left rotator cuff and will be re-evaluated in six months, per Law Murray of The Athletic.

Grizzlies

4 listed

  • Isaiah Stewart C

    Day-To-Day

    Stewart (knee) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Nuggets.

  • Scotty Pippen Jr. G

    Out

    Pippen (back) remains out for Wednesday's game against Denver, Michael Wallace of the Grizzlies' official site reports.

  • Quinten Post C

    Out

    Post (concussion) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Nuggets.

  • Richie Saunders G

    Out

    Saunders signed a two-way contract with the Grizzlies on Saturday, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLACMEM
Against the spread4–45–3
Last 104–45–3
Favorite1–03–2
Underdog3–42–1
Overs–unders5–32–6
Overs–unders, last 105–32–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAC 7–4 MEM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.