Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast

NBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Wizards

4-7

53%

at

Home

Bulls

1-8

47%

The pick
WSH · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
119–118
Fair odds
-111

Your pick

United Center · MNMT

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Wizards at 53%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: lineup changes favor the Wizards, the Bulls rate higher (1371 to 1326 Elo) and the Bulls have home court.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Wizards

Now <1%

<1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

Bulls

Now <1%

1%

with a win

<1%

with a loss

Their playoff odds barely move on this one.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Wizards 53%

Toss-up
WSH 53%CHI 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
WSH 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WSH -1
WSH 54%
Fair odds
WSH -111
CHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
WSH 118.5 – 117.7 CHI
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWSHCHIWhy
Team rating13261371Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+70−37WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHI: Missing Norman Powell (40% to sit) −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the injury report)
Elo ratingsWSH +26 EloWSH 53.8%
Market-implied ratingsWSH 52.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWSH 52.7%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Washington Wizards and Chicago Bulls compared, with each team's league rank
WSHStatCHI
25th of 30108.1Points scored112.718th of 30
16th of 30113.4Points allowed129.330th of 30
21st of 30−5.3Margin−16.730th of 30
23rd of 30106.7Offense rating105.426th of 30
16th of 30111.9Defense rating121.030th of 30
19th of 30101.0Pace107.01st of 30
20th of 302–5Road vs home0–327th of 30
16th of 301506Opponent Elo15383rd of 30
29th of 301326Elo rating137125th of 30
24th of 30−2.0Offense, adjusted+0.911th of 30
24th of 30−3.1Defense, adjusted−7.530th of 30

Who's playing

Each team's projected rotation from its current roster and the latest injury report. Minutes follow each player's usual role, with absent players' minutes handed to the rest. The Elo badge compares tonight's lineup with the team's recent ones.

All player ratings →

Wizards

+70 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Trae Young3223.3Available
Kyshawn George3213.3Available
Anthony Davis3128.0Available
AJ Dybantsa2817.1Available
Alex Sarr2415.4Available
Bilal Coulibaly2310.8Available
Tre Johnson2211.8Available
Bub Carrington189.3Available
Deandre Ayton1418.5Available
Will Riley712.2Available
Jamir Watkins—14.4Out
Justin Champagnie—16.8Out

Bulls

−37 Elo
PlayerMinRatingStatus
Josh Giddey2820.9Available
Caleb Wilson2716.3Available
Matas Buzelis2515.9Available
Jalen Smith2120.7Available
Nic Claxton2015.1Available
Isaac Okoro1912.3Available
Tre Jones1720.2Available
Norman Powell1521.2Day-To-Day−9
Patrick Williams1410.7Available
Noa Essengue1214.8Available
Leonard Miller1217.1Available
Jordan Hawkins911.8Available

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WizardsBulls
12001300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Wizards

4 listed

  • Tristan Vukcevic F

    Out

    Vukcevic (hip) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Detroit.

  • Reece Beekman G

    Out

    The Wizards announced Monday that Beekman sustained a right acromioclavicular joint injury and will be re-evaluated in approximately three weeks.

  • Justin Champagnie F

    Out

    Champagnie (foot) is expected to miss several months, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic.

  • Jamir Watkins G

    Out

    The Wizards announced Thursday that Watkins has undergone surgery for a torn ACL.

Bulls

3 listed

  • Norman Powell G

    Day-To-Day

    Powell (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game versus the Spurs.

  • Tobe Awaka F

    Day-To-Day

    Awaka (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

  • Zach Collins F

    Day-To-Day

    Collins (illness) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWSHCHI
Against the spread5–44–5
Last 105–44–5
Favorite1–00–1
Underdog4–44–4
Overs–unders2–76–3
Overs–unders, last 102–76–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WSH 3–8 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.