New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin HagenmanPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to center, Baty scored.6–7
- 7Crews homered to left (388 feet).5–7
- 5Benge homered to right center (407 feet).5–6
- 5Bichette homered to center (427 feet).4–6
- 3Ruiz singled to left, Abrams scored.3–6
- 3Lile hit sacrifice fly to center, Crews scored, Abrams to third.3–5
- 3House scored on Pintaro wild pitch.3–4
- 3House scored on Pintaro wild pitch.3–4
- 3Chaparro scored on Pintaro wild pitch, House to third on wild pitch by Pintaro.3–3
- 3Chaparro scored on Pintaro wild pitch, House to third on wild pitch by Pintaro.3–3
- 3Vientos hit sacrifice fly to right, Soto scored, Bichette to third.3–2
- 3Bichette doubled to right, Lindor scored, Soto to third.2–2
- 1Abrams singled to right, Wood scored and Crews scored.1–2
- 1Vientos doubled to left, Soto scored, Bichette to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML NYM -108 / WSH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 49.6%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- NYM +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +3 | NYM: Jefry Yan (no track record yet) · WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +3 Elo | NYM 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3037–41 | Road vs home | 37–4123rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Elo rating | 147523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–83 | 89–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–49 | 21–21 |
| Underdog | 44–34 | 68–49 |
| Overs–unders | 75–71–13 | 83–67–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 31–18 WSH in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 49.