Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Yohandy MoralesBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Ben MalgeriBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Morales homered to right (349 feet), Wood scored.2–9
- 5Torkelson homered to left (380 feet), Dingler scored.0–9
- 5Malgeri homered to left (375 feet), Greene scored and Valencia scored.0–7
- 4Báez homered to left (426 feet), Dingler scored.0–4
- 1Valencia singled to left, Lee scored on fielding error by left fielder Wood.0–2
- 1Lee hit a ground rule double, Torres scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML WSH +113 / DET -136
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- DET: Elo 59.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +15 | WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: River Ryan: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +65 Elo | DET 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–42 | Road vs home | 39–3615th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 24th of 301474 | Elo rating | 150712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–69 | 76–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 34–50 |
| Underdog | 66–48 | 42–30 |
| Overs–unders | 82–65–9 | 68–80–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–3 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.