New York Mets at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brett BatyBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty homered to right center (455 feet), Morabito scored, Soto scored and Bichette scored.7–2
- 8Semien homered to left center (388 feet).3–2
- 5Carter grounded into fielder's choice to second, Burger scored, Jansen out at second, Lopez to third.2–2
- 5Burger singled to left, Nimmo scored.2–1
- 3Soto homered to right center (429 feet), Lindor scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML NYM -113 / TEX -107
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.6%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–40 | Road vs home | 44–3510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–82 | 72–85 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–49 | 31–55 |
| Underdog | 43–33 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 74–70–13 | 80–66–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–5 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.