New York Mets at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Benge doubled to right, Baty scored.6–3
- 6Torrens hit sacrifice fly to first, Alvarez scored.5–3
- 6Alvarez doubled to center, Semien scored and Benge scored.4–3
- 4Langford hit sacrifice fly to left, Duran scored, Foscue to third.2–3
- 4Díaz hit sacrifice fly to left, Nimmo scored, Foscue to second, Duran to third.2–2
- 4Benge scored on error, Alvarez safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Nimmo, Alvarez safe at second on error.2–1
- 3Jung doubled to right, Jansen scored.1–1
- 3Soto singled to center, Alvarez scored, Lindor to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML NYM +105 / TEX -126
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −6 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +22 Elo | TEX 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3035–40 | Road vs home | 44–3410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–82 | 72–84 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 32–49 | 31–54 |
| Underdog | 42–33 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 73–70–13 | 79–66–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–5 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.