Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Yohandy MoralesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brad LordPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Ben MalgeriBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Malgeri singled to right, Jung scored, McGonigle to third.4–2
- 7Wood grounded out to first, Nuñez scored.4–1
- 6Malgeri homered to left center (404 feet).3–1
- 6Morales homered to right center (422 feet), House scored.3–0
- 6Abrams singled to right, Chaparro scored, Abrams out stretching at second, House to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML WSH +136 / DET -165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- DET: Elo 57.6%, market 59.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -147
- WSH +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −4 | WSH: Richard Lovelady: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +53 Elo | DET 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3037–43 | Road vs home | 40–3715th of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301473 | Elo rating | 150812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–70 | 77–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 35–51 |
| Underdog | 67–49 | 42–30 |
| Overs–unders | 83–66–9 | 69–81–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–4 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.