Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jackson KentPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-5
- Drew AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Abrams homered to right (404 feet), Crews scored.3–1
- 6Malgeri scored on Kent wild pitch, Clark to second.1–1
- 6Malgeri scored on Kent wild pitch, Clark to second on wild pitch by Kent.1–1
- 2Abrams homered to right center (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML WSH +129 / DET -156
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- DET: Elo 58.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | WSH: Riley Cornelio: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Drew Anderson: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +59 Elo | DET 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3036–43 | Road vs home | 40–3615th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Elo rating | 151010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–70 | 77–80 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 35–50 |
| Underdog | 66–49 | 42–30 |
| Overs–unders | 83–65–9 | 69–80–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–4 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.