New York Mets at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Carson BengeBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Seager homered to right (374 feet).1–3
- 1Jung homered to left (369 feet), Foscue scored.1–2
- 1Benge singled to right, Lindor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML NYM +110 / TEX -132
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.0%, market 54.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- NYM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +7 Elo | TEX 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 3037–40 | Road vs home | 44–3611th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–82 | 72–86 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–49 | 31–56 |
| Underdog | 44–33 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 75–70–13 | 81–66–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–5 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.