Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Blues at 52%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Blues have home ice and the Capitals rate higher (1526 to 1499 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Capitals
Now 63%
67%
with a win
59%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
Blues
Now 41%
44%
with a win
37%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Blues 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Fair odds
- STL -110
- WSH +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- WSH 3.1 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | STL and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | — | — | WSH: Starter not announced · STL: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%8th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 6th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 15088th of 32 |
| 11th of 321526 | Elo rating | 149916th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Capitals
3 listedRasmus Sandin D
Injured ReserveSandin (knee) will be with the Capitals for their two-game road trip, Tarik El-Bashir of Monumental Sports Network reports Monday.
Vincent Desharnais D
Injured Reserveir
Patrick Thomas C
Injured Reserveir-nr
Blues
3 listedTorey Krug D
Injured ReserveKrug (ankle) was placed on long-term injured reserve by the Blues on Monday, per PuckPedia.
Dillon Dube C
Injured Reserveir
Tyler Tucker D
Injured ReserveTucker had arthroscopic knee surgery and will be re-assessed in six weeks, the team announced Wednesday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.