Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Senators at 64%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Senators rate higher (1525 to 1456 Elo) and the Senators have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Flames
Now 17%
20%
with a win
15%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Senators
Now 69%
72%
with a win
64%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Senators 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 65%
- Fair odds
- OTT -180
- CGY +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CGY 2.8 – 3.6 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | — | — | CGY: Starter not announced · OTT: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | OTT +104 Elo | OTT 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 64.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.215th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 48.9%19th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%10th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 20th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 32 |
| 29th of 321456 | Elo rating | 152512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Flames
4 listedKevin Bahl D
Injured ReserveBahl will undergo surgery for a ruptured Achilles tendon and won't play again in the 2026-27 season, the Flames announced Sunday.
Jonathan Huberdeau LW
Injured ReserveHuberdeau (hip) took the ice in a regular jersey Friday, Pat Steinberg of QR Calgary 770 AM reports.
Connor Zary C
Outout
Samuel Honzek LW
Injured Reserveir
Senators
5 listedNick Cousins C
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Linus Ullmark G
Outout
Andre Burakovsky LW
Injured Reserveir
Warren Foegele LW
Injured ReserveFoegele (knee) will miss 3-4 weeks, Jackson Starr of the Senators' official site reports Saturday.
William Eklund LW
Injured ReserveEklund had surgery to repair a torn ankle tendon and will be out 10-12 weeks, Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports Thursday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–5 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.