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Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

ESPN+, Scripps Sports

Away

Oilers

13-3-3

48%

at

Home

Panthers

10-7-2

52%

The pick
FLA · Toss-up
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–3
Fair odds
-108

Your pick

Amerant Bank Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Panthers 52%). It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Panthers have home ice and the Oilers rate higher (1537 to 1511 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Oilers

Now 96%

97%

with a win

95%

with a loss

This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.

Panthers

Now 49%

52%

with a win

45%

with a loss

This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Panthers 52%

Toss-up
EDM 48%FLA 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
FLA 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 51%
Fair odds
FLA -108
EDM +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
EDM 3.1 – 3.2 FLA
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMFLAWhy
Team rating15371511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies——EDM: Starter not announced · FLA: Starter not announced
Elo ratingsFLA +9 EloFLA 51.3%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 52.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 51.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatFLA
1st of 324.1Goals scored3.216th of 32
9th of 322.9Goals allowed2.99th of 32
3rd of 32+1.2Margin+0.212th of 32
18th of 3249.1%Shot share53.1%7th of 32
12th of 3289.6%Save percentage89.2%15th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 105–514th of 32
1st of 327–1Road vs home4–28th of 32
32nd of 321476Opponent Elo148530th of 32
7th of 321537Elo rating151114th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersPanthers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Oilers

5 listed

  • Isaac Howard LW

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Alec Regula D

    Injured Reserve

    Regula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.

  • Matt Savoie C

    Injured Reserve

    Savoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.

  • Frederik Andersen G

    Injured Reserve

    Andersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on Tuesday.

  • Mattias Janmark C

    Injured Reserve

    Janmark (undisclosed) does not have a timetable for his return from injury.

Panthers

4 listed

  • Sandis Vilmanis LW

    Out

    Vilmanis (undisclosed) will probably miss a few games, according to George Richards of Florida Hockey Now on Saturday.

  • Brad Marchand LW

    Injured Reserve

    Head coach Paul Maurice said Friday that Marchand (knee) will travel with the Panthers during their upcoming three-game road trip, Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site reports.

  • Aleksander Barkov C

    Injured Reserve

    Head coach Paul Maurice said Friday that Barkov (knee) will travel with the Panthers during their upcoming three-game road trip, Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site reports.

  • Jonah Gadjovich LW

    Injured Reserve

    Gadjovich (upper body) is out indefinitely, the team announced Thursday.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMFLA
Puck line13–67–10
Last 107–35–5
Favorite9–55–7
Underdog4–12–3
Overs–unders10–97–10
Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 6–13 FLA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.