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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast

ESPN

Away

Panthers

3-5

31%

at

Home

Buccaneers

3-6

69%

The pick
TB · Solid
Line
Not yet
Projected
20–26
Fair odds
-225

Your pick

Raymond James Stadium · ESPN

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Buccaneers at 69%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Buccaneers rate higher (1511 to 1402 Elo), the Buccaneers have home field and quarterback changes favor the Buccaneers.

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Panthers

Now 18%

32%

with a win

12%

with a loss

This game is worth 20 points of playoff chance to them.

Buccaneers

Now 37%

45%

with a win

21%

with a loss

This game is worth 24 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Buccaneers 69%

Solid
CAR 31%TB 69%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
TB 69%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TB -6.5
TB 72%
Fair odds
TB -225
CAR +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
CAR 20.1 – 25.8 TB
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCARTBWhy
Team rating14021511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks+5+21CAR: Bryce Young · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report)
Elo ratingsTB +161 EloTB 71.6%
Market-implied ratingsTB 61.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 69.2%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

Try another venue →
Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers compared, with each team's league rank
CARStatTB
11th of 3224.9Points scored22.418th of 32
28th of 3227.4Points allowed19.87th of 32
19th of 32−2.5Margin+2.713th of 32
12th of 325.49Yards per play4.9125th of 32
16th of 325.30Yards allowed per play5.028th of 32
14th of 322–2Road vs home1–426th of 32
5th of 321534Opponent Elo15229th of 32
23rd of 321402Elo rating151117th of 32
20th of 32−1.0Offense, adjusted+0.316th of 32
26th of 32−2.1Defense, adjusted+0.412th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersBuccaneers
1300135014001450150015501600league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Panthers

25 listed

  • John Metchie III WR

    Active

    Metchie caught both of his targets for 40 yards Sunday in a loss to the Broncos.

  • Mitchell Evans TE

    Active

    Evans caught both of his two targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 26-21 loss versus the Broncos.

  • Trevor Etienne RB

    Active

    Etienne carried the ball two times for seven yards and returned one punt for nine yards during Carolina'a loss Sunday to the Broncos.

  • Jaelan Phillips LB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Will Lee III CB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Damien Lewis G

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Bobby Okereke LB

    Questionable

    questionable

  • Ryan Fitzgerald PK

    Active

    Fitzgerald missed his only field-goal attempt and went 3-for-3 on extra-point tries during Sunday's 26-21 loss to the Broncos.

  • Jaycee Horn CB

    Injured Reserve

    Head coach Dave Canales plans to take "the next two days" to discuss Horn (quadriceps), Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports.

  • Mike Jackson CB

    Injured Reserve

    Head coach Dave Canales stated the team plans to take "the next two days to discuss" Jackson (groin), Mike Kaye of ESPN.com reports.

  • Ja'Tavion Sanders TE

    Active

    Sanders recorded zero targets during Sunday's 26-21 loss to the Broncos.

  • TeRah Edwards DT

    Active

Buccaneers

25 listed

  • Ted Hurst III WR

    Active

    Hurst failed to haul in his lone target during the Buccaneers' 27-24 loss to the Bears on Sunday.

  • Tez Johnson WR

    Active

    Johnson caught two passes for 76 yards on five targets in Sunday night's 27-24 loss to the Bears.

  • Sean Tucker RB

    Active

    Tucker didn't log any offensive snaps in a loss to the Bears on Sunday. He returned four kickoffs for 92 yards.

  • Chase McLaughlin PK

    Active

    McLaughlin converted all three of his field-goal attempts and both of his extra-point tries during Tampa Bay's loss to the Bears on Sunday.

  • Cade Otton TE

    Active

    Otton caught four of eight targets for 25 yards in Sunday night's 27-24 loss to the Bears.

  • Yaya Diaby LB

    Out

    out

  • Ayden Garnes CB

    Active

  • Trevor Keegan G

    Active

  • Billy Schrauth G

    Active

  • DeMonte Capehart DT

    Active

  • Bucky Irving RB

    Active

    Head coach Todd Bowles said Monday that the Buccaneers "will try and lessen the load" on Irving following their Week 10 bye, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

  • Jalen McMillan WR

    Injured Reserve

    Head coach Todd Bowles suggested Monday that McMillan (knee) isn't likely to immediately return to action following the Buccaneers' Week 10 bye, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCARTB
Against the spread3–54–5
Last 103–54–5
Favorite2–21–2
Underdog1–33–3
Overs–unders4–45–4
Overs–unders, last 104–45–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CAR 1–6 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.