Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Jaguars at 90%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Jaguars rate higher (1642 to 1296 Elo) and the Jaguars have home field.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Titans
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
0%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
Jaguars
Now 98%
99%
with a win
95%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Jaguars 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -15.5
- JAX 90%
- Fair odds
- JAX -886
- TEN +886 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- TEN 14.8 – 30.3 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1296 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +9 | TEN: Cam Ward · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +387 Elo | JAX 90.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 88.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 89.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Adjusted: the scoring model’s ratings a game, which account for who they played. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.0 | Points scored | 28.64th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.9 | Points allowed | 15.12nd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−6.9 | Margin | +13.51st of 32 |
| 26th of 324.84 | Yards per play | 5.906th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.76 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4120th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 31st of 321449 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321296 | Elo rating | 16425th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−2.8 | Offense, adjusted | +2.44th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−2.5 | Defense, adjusted | +2.04th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Titans
25 listedTony Pollard RB
ActiveThe Titans opted not to move Pollard ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline, despite him drawing interest from teams, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
James Williams Sr. LB
Injured Reserveir
Tyjae Spears RB
Questionablequestionable
Carnell Tate WR
Questionablequestionable
Tommy Townsend P
Questionablequestionable
Jaylon Jones CB
Questionablequestionable
Dorian Mausi LB
Injured ReserveThe Titans activated Mausi (foot) from injured reserve Monday, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.
Nicholas Singleton RB
ActiveTitans head coach Robert Saleh said Monday that Singleton is "getting better," and the rookie running back could be a candidate to see added opportunities in the second half of the season if lead back Tony Pollard is dealt ahead of Tuesday's deadline, Turron Davenport of ESPN.com reports.
Calvin Ridley WR
ActiveTitans head coach Robert Saleh confirmed Monday that Ridley was involved in an "unfortunate" interaction over the weekend at Nashville International Airport that is now in the hands of law enforcement, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Joey Slye PK
ActiveSlye hit both field-goal tries and his two extra-point attempts in Sunday's 43-36 overtime loss to the Bengals.
Elic Ayomanor WR
ActiveAyomanor caught three of five targets for 34 yards in Sunday's 43-36 overtime loss to the Bengals.
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson OT
Active
Jaguars
25 listedBrian Thomas Jr. WR
ActiveThe Jaguars have relayed to inquiring teams that they intend to keep Thomas through Tuesday's trade deadline, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
Davon Godchaux DT
ActiveThe Jaguars acquired Godchaux from the Saints on Monday in exchange for a 2028 sixth-round pick, though the selection could turn into a 2027 sixth-round pick if "conditions are met," Jonathan Jones of The Athletic of The Athletic reports.
CJ Williams WR
ActiveWesley Williams DE
ActiveFoyesade Oluokun LB
ActiveOluokun recorded seven tackles (six solo), including 1.0 sacks, in Thursday's 33-10 victory over Baltimore.
Tanner Koziol TE
ActiveKoziol finished Thursday's 33-10 win over Baltimore with two catches for 15 yards on two targets.
Nate Boerkircher TE
ActiveBoerkircher hauled in two of three targets for 61 yards in Thursday night's 33-10 win over Baltimore.
Josh Cameron WR
ActiveCameron caught his only target for six yards in Thursday night's 33-10 victory over the Ravens.
Ameer Abdullah RB
ActiveAbdullah carried the ball seven times for 30 yards and returned one kickoff for 24 yards in Thursday night's 33-10 win over the Ravens.
Brenton Strange TE
ActiveStrange caught both of his targets for 22 yards in Thursday night's 33-10 win over the Ravens.
Travis Hunter WR
ActiveHunter caught his only target for minus-1 yard and lost a fumble in Thursday night's 33-10 win over the Ravens.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB
ActiveRodriguez rushed 10 times for 19 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for 13 yards in the Jaguars' 33-10 win over the Ravens on Thursday night.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 1–5 JAX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.